Structural resilience of demand: We realistically believe meaningful exhibition activity only returns in Asia (primarily China) in 2020, and so, whilst the group revenue target this year is likely to fall, we believe interim results on September 21st should start to shift investor attention to 2021. We expect management to highlight that exhibitor numbers are returning at encouraging levels, provide further detail on the phasing of events through next year, and on the opportunity to make structural savings of indirect costs to offset the lower revenue level. For Markets, we now assume a recovery in FY21E to 75% of 2019, and in FY22E to c.90% of 2019. Elsewhere, Taylor & Francis will face budgetary pressures on journal renewals and book sales through the start of the academic year, but multi-year contracts provide a degree of resilience. Grasping the nettle: Despite the earlier £1bn placing, balance sheet concerns remain – unfairly in our view. We currently assume leverage of 3.8x in FY20E, falling to 1.5x at YE21E. One covenant (3.5x) exists on the US private placement – starting negotiations at a time with greater visibility on the outlook for Markets to generate cash-flow should make them easier, but the debt could easily be repaid (with associated costs) if required. A worst case scenario of this costing £1.2bn, and a working capital outflow of £200m in 2021, would still leave the company with liquidity of close to £900m, relative to an estimated current cash-burn (even before further indirect cost savings to come) of <£50m per month – at a time when the bond markets remain open too. Finding a floor: Overall, we cut revenue and EPS by 12%/36% in FY20E and by 8%/24% in FY21E; FY22E EBITA falls 7%. From a fundamental standpoint, our FY22E EBITA would have to fall nearly 30% to move our DCF to the current share price, and the multiples (a PE of c.11x and FCF yield of >10% in FY22E) leave significant scope for expansion mid-term.