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  • 03 Dec 2019

Investec UK Daily: 03/12/2019


Associated British Foods plc (ABF:LON), 1,966 | ASOS Plc (ASC:LON), 284 | B&M European Value Retail SA (BME:LON), 243 | boohoo group Plc (DEBS:LON), 13.4 | Card Factory Plc (CARD:LON), 107 | Gooch & Housego PLC (GHH:LON), 555 | Greggs plc (GRG:LON), 1,595 | Halfords Group Plc (HFD:LON), 136 | Hargreaves Services plc (HSP:LON), 731 | JD Sports Fashion Plc (JD:LON), 90.9 | Kingfisher Plc (KGF:LON), 244 | Marks and Spencer Group plc (MKS:LON), 339 | Naked Wines plc (WINE:LON), 79.9 | Next plc (NXT:LON), 12,112 | WH Smith PLC (SMWH:LON), 674 | TheWorks.co.uk plc (WRKS:LON), 48.3 | Watches of Switzerland Group PLC (WOSG:LON), 355

  • Investec Bank
    • Alastair Reid | Ross Broadfoot | Ben Bourne | Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert | Michael Donnelly | Hunter Hillcoat | Marc Elliott | Thomas Rands, CFA

    • 12 pages


 

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Investec UK Daily: 03/12/2019


Associated British Foods plc (ABF:LON), 1,966 | ASOS Plc (ASC:LON), 284 | B&M European Value Retail SA (BME:LON), 243 | boohoo group Plc (DEBS:LON), 13.4 | Card Factory Plc (CARD:LON), 107 | Gooch & Housego PLC (GHH:LON), 555 | Greggs plc (GRG:LON), 1,595 | Halfords Group Plc (HFD:LON), 136 | Hargreaves Services plc (HSP:LON), 731 | JD Sports Fashion Plc (JD:LON), 90.9 | Kingfisher Plc (KGF:LON), 244 | Marks and Spencer Group plc (MKS:LON), 339 | Naked Wines plc (WINE:LON), 79.9 | Next plc (NXT:LON), 12,112 | WH Smith PLC (SMWH:LON), 674 | TheWorks.co.uk plc (WRKS:LON), 48.3 | Watches of Switzerland Group PLC (WOSG:LON), 355

  • Published: 03 Dec 2019
  • Author: Alastair Reid | Ross Broadfoot | Ben Bourne | Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert | Michael Donnelly | Hunter Hillcoat | Marc Elliott | Thomas Rands, CFA
  • Pages: 12
  • Investec Bank


November distorted by Black Friday and Cyber Monday timing, but underlying growth appears stronger. Total retail sales were down 4.4%, with LFL sales down 4.9%. Adjusting for Black Friday, the BRC estimates total sales growth was up 0.9% (LFL +0.4%), above the 3- and 12-month averages of 0% and 0.2% respectively. Black Friday is the second highest trading week of the year for non-food. Discounting was prevalent. Deals started earlier and targeted more products than last year, according to the BRC. Electronics and clothing both benefitted from big discounts. Non-food 3-month total in-store sales were down 5.2% with LFLs down 5.5% versus the 12-month average of 3.4%. Online non-food growth was down 10.1% versus the 12-month average. Adjusting for Black Friday, the BRC estimates online growth was up 8%, with penetration up 2.1 percentage points to a record 36%. The strongest performers were the typical Black Friday categories: jewellery, electricals and clothing. Adjusting for Black Friday distortion, clothing did see growth in November. Womenswear appears most sensitive to impulse buying, with partywear reported as sluggish. The mid-month cold snap did drive demand for knitwear. The lack of promotional activity ahead of Black Friday meant online clothing sales suffered. Footwear was also impacted by a lack of promotions; adjusting for timing issues, it did not see growth. That said, demand for boots did pick up as the temperature dropped. Electricals was driven by heavy promotions with early demand for small domestic alliances. Deals started early in computing and targeted more popular products from handsets to earbuds. Furniture fell back into decline in November as highlighted by the ScS trading update. The run up to a General Election typically does not help big ticket sales. Homewares and home textiles also suffered, though Christmas gifting favourites were said to be doing well. Weak categories: The health & beauty market remains weak, with beauty the worst performing category given last year’s tough comparable. Toys and baby equipment remained one of the worst three performing categories as deals for Black Friday had not begun. Soft toys performed relatively better. Food sales were more steady, up a total of 1.3% or 0.3% on a LFL basis, and unsurprisingly was the only category to see growth as it is mostly unaffected by Black Friday. Growth has slowed (12-month average 1.5%), driven by an easing of inflation according to the BRC.

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