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  • 04 Dec 2020

Investec UK Daily: 04/12/2020


Associated British Foods plc (ABF:LON), 2,216 | Admiral Group plc (ADM:LON), 3,340 | Anglo American plc (AAL:LON), 2,277 | Antofagasta plc (ANTO:LON), 2,141 | Aviva plc (AV:LON), 655 | B&M European Value Retail SA (BME:LON), 240 | Beazley Plc (BEZ:LON), 784 | BHP Group Ltd (BHP:LON), 2,002 | Ferrexpo plc (FXPO:LON), 53.4 | Glencore plc (GLEN:LON), 287 | Hiscox Ltd (HSX:LON), 1,285 | Lancashire Holdings Limited (LRE:LON), 589 | McBride plc (MCB:LON), 117 | Resolute Mining Limited (RSG:ASX), 0 | Rio Tinto plc (RIO:LON), 4,692 | Sabre Insurance Group Plc (SBRE:LON), 140 | SSE PLC (SSE:LON), 1,648

  • Investec Bank
    • Martin Young | Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert | Nicola Mallard | Ben Cohen | Thomas Rands, CFA

    • 13 pages


 

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Investec UK Daily: 04/12/2020


Associated British Foods plc (ABF:LON), 2,216 | Admiral Group plc (ADM:LON), 3,340 | Anglo American plc (AAL:LON), 2,277 | Antofagasta plc (ANTO:LON), 2,141 | Aviva plc (AV:LON), 655 | B&M European Value Retail SA (BME:LON), 240 | Beazley Plc (BEZ:LON), 784 | BHP Group Ltd (BHP:LON), 2,002 | Ferrexpo plc (FXPO:LON), 53.4 | Glencore plc (GLEN:LON), 287 | Hiscox Ltd (HSX:LON), 1,285 | Lancashire Holdings Limited (LRE:LON), 589 | McBride plc (MCB:LON), 117 | Resolute Mining Limited (RSG:ASX), 0 | Rio Tinto plc (RIO:LON), 4,692 | Sabre Insurance Group Plc (SBRE:LON), 140 | SSE PLC (SSE:LON), 1,648

  • Published: 04 Dec 2020
  • Author: Martin Young | Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert | Nicola Mallard | Ben Cohen | Thomas Rands, CFA
  • Pages: 13
  • Investec Bank


In or view, there are two key decarbonisation themes that will engage most of the major miners through the coming decades: Energy transition: the pathway toward transformation of the global energy sector from fossil-based to zero-carbon or carbon neutrality, and Decarbonisation of the steel and non-ferrous metal industries: technological developments aimed at limiting the global greenhouse gas emissions generated by the steel and base metal making industries. Increased electrification is at the very heart of the energy transition, allied with the shift away from fossil fuel power generation towards renewable energy sources. This should see increased demand for essential commodities, the “transition metals” – copper, aluminium, nickel, cobalt, and lithium – across all elements of the power value chain: generation (wind turbines, solar panels), transmission and distribution (grids, charging infrastructure), storage (batteries) and application (electric vehicles). At the same time, commodities most associated with the status quo – fossil fuels, lead – stand to be progressively displaced, while PGMs face mixed outcomes. The intensity of changing demand for these commodities, and the ability of the mining industry to respond, will depend heavily on the decarbonisation pathways that governments and the private sector adopt and the rigour with which they implement them through inducement and penalties. Increased decarbonisation of the steel and non-ferrous metal industries meanwhile can simply take place through the greater use of renewable power, higher quality feedstocks (high-grade iron ore, premium metallurgical coal, trihydrate bauxite and alumina), increased scrap and increased adoption of EAF in steel making. Ultimately, however, a material reduction in carbon emissions is only likely to come through material advances in the processes and economics underpinning technologies that are still new to the sector, including carbon and fluorine gas capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS), and blast furnace hydrogen injection (ideally using green hydrogen). This note is intended to form the basis for later, more detailed, reports on the individual commodities and themes identified here and the ramifications these have for the miners. Tentative steps. The miners have made consistent progress in setting and meeting targets that reduce their impact, largely through asset divestments. Growth in “future facing” commodities remains modest, however, given limited options and risk aversion towards substantial capital investments/M&A. While financial commitment to climate change initiatives is increasing, it remains tentative given the nascent nature of many of the related technologies.

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