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05 Aug 2021
Investec UK Daily: 05/08/2021
AB INBEV (ABI:EBR), 0 | Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (ABI:BRU), 0 | Advanced Medical Solutions Group plc (AMS:LON), 199 | CVS Group plc (CVSG:LON), 1,260 | Diversified Energy Company PLC (DEC:LON), 1,040 | Eco Animal Health Group PLC (EAH:LON), 61.0 | EKF Diagnostics Holdings plc (EKF:LON), 25.5 | Genus plc (GNS:LON), 2,030 | Integrated Diagnostics Holdings Plc (IDHC:LON), 35.5 | Mondi plc (MNDI:LON), 1,205 | Oxford BioMedica plc (OXB:LON), 323 | Reckitt Benckiser (Bangladesh) PLC (RECKITTBEN:DHA), 0 | Reckitt Benckiser Group plc (RKT:LON), 4,946 | Renalytix Plc (RENX:LON), 8.0 | Rolls-Royce Holdings plc (RR:LON), 851 | SIMEC Atlantis Energy Ltd. (SAE:LON), 2.4 | Smurfit Westrock PLC (SWR:LON), 3,245 | Spirent Communications plc (SPT:LON), 192 | Tristel Plc (TSTL:LON), 370 | Alliance Pharma plc (DVL:FRA), 0

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Investec UK Daily: 05/08/2021
AB INBEV (ABI:EBR), 0 | Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (ABI:BRU), 0 | Advanced Medical Solutions Group plc (AMS:LON), 199 | CVS Group plc (CVSG:LON), 1,260 | Diversified Energy Company PLC (DEC:LON), 1,040 | Eco Animal Health Group PLC (EAH:LON), 61.0 | EKF Diagnostics Holdings plc (EKF:LON), 25.5 | Genus plc (GNS:LON), 2,030 | Integrated Diagnostics Holdings Plc (IDHC:LON), 35.5 | Mondi plc (MNDI:LON), 1,205 | Oxford BioMedica plc (OXB:LON), 323 | Reckitt Benckiser (Bangladesh) PLC (RECKITTBEN:DHA), 0 | Reckitt Benckiser Group plc (RKT:LON), 4,946 | Renalytix Plc (RENX:LON), 8.0 | Rolls-Royce Holdings plc (RR:LON), 851 | SIMEC Atlantis Energy Ltd. (SAE:LON), 2.4 | Smurfit Westrock PLC (SWR:LON), 3,245 | Spirent Communications plc (SPT:LON), 192 | Tristel Plc (TSTL:LON), 370 | Alliance Pharma plc (DVL:FRA), 0
- Published:
05 Aug 2021 -
Author:
Martin Young | Dr Andrew Whitney | Ben Bourne | Julian Yates | Roger Phillips | Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert | Alicia Forry, CFA | Anthony Geard | Thomas Rands, CFA | Alex Smith | Rory Smith | Nathan Piper -
Pages:
12 -
Organic drivers: (i) Unmodelled operating leverage. Our base case models limited future operating leverage (20bps margin expansion to FY23E), versus consensus that models margin dilution. Although following recent deals, more products are manufactured externally, in our view, margin expansion is still likely. Delivery of the historical quantum of operating leverage can drive a high-single digit % FY23 consensus EPS upgrade. (ii) Incremental revenue – pipeline delivery. Pipeline forecasts remain probability weighted. As development assets mature, probability discounts are removed, applying upward pressure on group financials. We see a relatively easy £2.50 per share upside, from pipeline maturation (even ex-the two largest product opportunities). (iii) Incremental revenue – ongoing geographic expansion. Dechra benefits when existing products are launched in new territories. The group’s portfolio is now broader, but geographic opportunities remain. Further geographic expansion can drive faster revenue growth.
Inorganic drivers. Dechra’s gearing is now reduced to c.1x, an historical trigger point on material deal-making. Management continue to focus on both internal and external innovation, but now (once again) with sufficient debt firepower to materially accrete financials inorganically. Our scenario analysis suggests double-digit % upside potential on mid-term earnings estimates, from successful completion of debt-based transactions.
Valuation not stretched. TP up 10% to 5,700p. We raise our target price to 5,700p, based on our updated DCF analysis (5,678p) and from marking to market animal health peer multiples (in our relative valuation, 5,820p). We see Dechra positioned in one of the best niches of a very attractive sector, with the majority of earnings secured in the premium companion animal arena. Versus similar stocks, to us, the valuation doesn’t look stretched, particularly given the earnings upgrade potential. Buy.