It currently remains difficult to gauge the magnitude and longevity of the COVID-19 related downturn. Even in recovery, as in China, uncertainty prevails as to the speed and extent of reactivation and the potential for a second wave impact. That said, our economists broadly expect stabilisation in China in the Q2, followed by a rebound. While timings elsewhere may vary, they generally expect the eye of the downturn in the Q2, with recoveries beginning in the Q3. Their World GDP forecasts are now -0.5% for 2020 (vs. +2.8% last month), with growth of 3.9% in 2021 if (and we mean if) global policy measures gain traction. Our initial attempt to quantify the possible impact of COVID-19 ran three worsening growth and commodity price scenarios, but sadly proved to be overoptimistic, in part because a China-centred story has been overtaken by events to become a global demand and supply risk scenario. However, consistent with conclusions of that note, our commodity price outlook remains: Positive: precious metals. We expect unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus and sharply reduced interest rates to provide a solid support for our existing positive recommendation on gold. We continue to favour exposure to palladium and rhodium given significant supply constraints, a tightening regulatory environment and early signs of revival in the Chinese automotive market. Positive: iron ore. Supply constraints in iron ore (notably in South African, India and Iran to date) and a modest recovery in demand for Chinese semi-finished and finished steel are all expected to limit the downside risk to prices from widespread derived demand weakness in other markets. Less positive: coal and base metals. Coal markets remain challenged, with met coal facing the Indian lock-down and thermal coal still severely pressured by abundant supplies of natural gas and prices trading at or near 25-year lows. Base metal prices are unlikely to recover quickly from their rapid descent into their respective industry cost curves, especially given that FX and input costs are still having a negative impact on the level of cost support. With forecast total returns well in excess of the required 10%, all companies under our coverage are now Buys under our recommendation methodology. In determining our key equity picks, however, we have sought meaningful exposure to the most favoured commodities, highest quality assets in terms of scale and margin, proven management, balance sheet capacity to endure a longer-than-expect downturn (should that occur), and the free cash flow to meet existing capital demands, including ongoing dividends, over the next 12 months. To this end, we favour Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton (upgraded from Hold) and Centamin. The more leveraged, but better diversified, Anglo American (also upgraded from Hold) provides exposure to PGMs and compelling value, albeit without the upside yield potential, given ongoing capex demands.