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13 May 2020
Investec UK Daily: 13/05/2020
Associated British Foods plc (ABF:LON), 2,239 | ASOS Plc (ASC:LON), 289 | Auto Trader Group PLC (AUTO:LON), 807 | B&M European Value Retail SA (BME:LON), 248 | boohoo group Plc (DEBS:LON), 13.8 | Card Factory Plc (CARD:LON), 106 | Greggs plc (GRG:LON), 1,643 | Halfords Group Plc (HFD:LON), 140 | JD Sports Fashion Plc (JD:LON), 95.6 | Kingfisher Plc (KGF:LON), 255 | Marks and Spencer Group plc (MKS:LON), 353 | Naked Wines plc (WINE:LON), 85.2 | Next plc (NXT:LON), 12,310 | Rightmove plc (RMV:LON), 739 | Sage Group plc (SGE:LON), 1,087 | WH Smith PLC (SMWH:LON), 670 | TheWorks.co.uk plc (WRKS:LON), 51.2 | Vesuvius Plc (VSVS:LON), 386 | Watches of Switzerland Group PLC (WOSG:LON), 360

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Investec UK Daily: 13/05/2020
Associated British Foods plc (ABF:LON), 2,239 | ASOS Plc (ASC:LON), 289 | Auto Trader Group PLC (AUTO:LON), 807 | B&M European Value Retail SA (BME:LON), 248 | boohoo group Plc (DEBS:LON), 13.8 | Card Factory Plc (CARD:LON), 106 | Greggs plc (GRG:LON), 1,643 | Halfords Group Plc (HFD:LON), 140 | JD Sports Fashion Plc (JD:LON), 95.6 | Kingfisher Plc (KGF:LON), 255 | Marks and Spencer Group plc (MKS:LON), 353 | Naked Wines plc (WINE:LON), 85.2 | Next plc (NXT:LON), 12,310 | Rightmove plc (RMV:LON), 739 | Sage Group plc (SGE:LON), 1,087 | WH Smith PLC (SMWH:LON), 670 | TheWorks.co.uk plc (WRKS:LON), 51.2 | Vesuvius Plc (VSVS:LON), 386 | Watches of Switzerland Group PLC (WOSG:LON), 360
- Published:
13 May 2020 -
Author:
Alastair Reid | Ross Broadfoot | Ben Bourne | Scott Cagehin | Julian Yates | Roger Phillips | Salvatore Caruso, CFA | Thomas Rands, CFA | Alex Smith | Rory Smith | Nathan	 Piper -
Pages:
12 -
April’s total retail sales down 19.1% yoy, with LFL sales up 5.7% on a LFL basis as the BRC has measured LFL sales excluding temporary closed stores. Overall, this is the worst decline since the BRC started monitoring sales. This was driven by non-food where the non-food 3 month average sales were down 17.5% versus a 12 month average decline of 11.5%. Food 3 month average sales were up 4.5% (LFL +6%) versus a 12 month average of 1.6%.
Non-food store closures drove the decline, with 3 month average in-store sales down 17.3% with online non-food sales up 57.9% (12 month average +8.5%). The pain was not felt equally, with’ essential’ retailers, like Halfords, B&M and B&Q, seeing some store sales and those better positioned online, like Amazon, Argos and boohoo, benefiting.
Fashion non-food categories were worse hit, particularly clothing, footwear, jewellery & large household items, not helped by 2-man delivery restriction. Health & Beauty also suffered from deserted High Streets, though demand for antibacterial products stayed high.
Within clothing, demand was strong for athleisure/loungewear and nightwear. Demand for high fashion disappeared. Childrenwear declined the least.
The only non-food categories where sales increased were computing and toys/baby equipment. Non-food categories which benefitted particularly online were games consoles, bikes, office equipment and haberdashery. DIY, cushions, throw and small decorative items for the home saw good demand.
Promotional activity reduced in March. Many retailers protected their logistics operations from overloading by removing promotions/marketing.
Food sales were disappointing, according to the BRC, with lockdown turning Easter into a more modest affair, though it was a busy month for building capacity on-line and adapting stores to social distancing. Food sales would also have benefitted from closures of pubs and restaurants.
Lockdown is certainly likely to have speeded up the longer term structural shift online, as consumers have adapted and change the way they shop. Short term, companies have focused on cash and cost preservation. There are likely to be material economic and financial headwinds as the industry emerges from lockdown with higher unemployment and weak demand as well as the challenge/cost of implementing social distancing within its operations.
The strong usually get stronger in a downturn, while restructuring/recovery plays tend to be set back a year or so as they typically emerge with more debt and reduced ability to invest. While sector valuations generally appear cheap, we prefer the more consistent, proven growth stories like B&M, JD Sports, Greggs, Watches of Switzerland and WH Smith for the longer term.