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  • 14 Jan 2021

Investec UK Daily: 14/01/2021


Associated British Foods plc (ABF:LON), 2,239 | boohoo group Plc (DEBS:LON), 13.8 | Card Factory Plc (CARD:LON), 106 | Centrica plc (CNA:LON), 154 | Halfords Group Plc (HFD:LON), 139 | Hays plc (HAS:LON), 61.1 | PageGroup PLC (PAGE:LON), 232 | Robert Walters Plc (RWA:LON), 158 | Safestore Holdings plc (SAFE:LON), 636 | Xaar plc (XAR:LON), 145

  • Investec Bank
    • Martin Young | Dr Andrew Whitney | Ben Bourne | Julian Yates | Roger Phillips | Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert | Thomas Rands, CFA | Alex Smith | Tom Callan | Nathan Piper

    • 18 pages


 

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Investec UK Daily: 14/01/2021


Associated British Foods plc (ABF:LON), 2,239 | boohoo group Plc (DEBS:LON), 13.8 | Card Factory Plc (CARD:LON), 106 | Centrica plc (CNA:LON), 154 | Halfords Group Plc (HFD:LON), 139 | Hays plc (HAS:LON), 61.1 | PageGroup PLC (PAGE:LON), 232 | Robert Walters Plc (RWA:LON), 158 | Safestore Holdings plc (SAFE:LON), 636 | Xaar plc (XAR:LON), 145

  • Published: 14 Jan 2021
  • Author: Martin Young | Dr Andrew Whitney | Ben Bourne | Julian Yates | Roger Phillips | Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert | Thomas Rands, CFA | Alex Smith | Tom Callan | Nathan Piper
  • Pages: 18
  • Investec Bank


MRR and reported revenue are in-line and EBITDA loss is better than expected, implying a more sharply reduced H2 loss than expected. Broadly flat underlying opex masks a mix shift, with total R&D up materially and now c.14% of revenue while other cost segments fell year-on-year, particularly in H2. Churn remains very low and net revenue retention improved in H2 on H1 (c.115% vs 110%). After a neutral H1, working capital swung back to be positive in H2, as background sales momentum accelerated. Our forecasts for revenue and EBITDA are unchanged. For FY20, entry ARR ended up covering c.90% of total revenue for a COVID-affected year (c.£127m versus £141m). Entry ARR for FY21E is c.£154m, implying a similar ratio of coverage, i.e. c.90% versus the bottom end of the new revenue guidance range (c.£170m-£180m). This looks conservative given there should be some degree of acceleration this year. EBITDA loss also looks conservative versus the H2/20 run-rate. Even allowing for rising travel and marketing costs, achieving cash breakeven later in FY21E or in FY22E – at the operating level on a run-rate basis – does not appear a stretch. Alongside results, new NED announcements add a wealth of experience gained at Google, Tibco and VMWare in scaling and managing technology businesses in the US and globally, which should be viewed as positive. The Bessemer Nasdaq Emerging Cloud Index currently sits at c.15x NTM EV/revenue for c.28% NTM revenue growth and c.74% gross margins, all on a median basis. Despite the recent share price rise, PRSM’s multiple still sits at a >20% discount, albeit for marginally lower revenue growth, but superior gross margin. Press reports of a potential IPO of UiPath in 2021, together with a possible US listing for PRSM, could act as positive catalysts. Our new TP of 2200p reflects a FY21E EV/Sales c.10% discount to the BVP index (c.13.6x).

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