Quantifying Coronavirus. Hannover Re warned on its Q4 call on March 11th that the impact from the Coronavirus could be as high as €200m, which would include losses in D&O (as well as event cancellation, credit and business interruption). Beazley at its full year results meeting said it could see additional claims if there was litigation around Coronavirus. We assume a $75m impact for Beazley ($25m event cancellation, $50m higher D&O claims) and a $15m impact for D&O claims at Hiscox. Lancashire does not write casualty insurance, but we have tempered growth expectations in Energy, Marine and Aviation lines on the lower oil price and reduced travel activity. Forecasts lowered. We update forecasts for three key items – full year results over the last month, investment markets, and the impact of the Coronavirus. We cut 2020E EPS by over a third at Beazley and Hiscox (a blend of risk-asset investment losses and more conservative casualty loss assumptions), and lower 2021E EPS by 9-10% for the group, primarily due to lower investment yields, but also lowered growth expectations. We now forecast no growth in the dividend at Hiscox, assuming a fourth year of below-target returns, and no special dividend from Lancashire, given improving pricing and growing top-line. Lowered target prices on lowered forecast returns. With no changes to long-term growth assumptions in the low single digits, we raise Beazley’s cost of equity for on-going uncertainty around its Casualty portfolio, and nudge down our target PE to 12.5x, versus 15x and 13x for Hiscox and Lancashire (both unchanged), equating to 2.0 and 1.6x price to tangible NAV (both lowered for lower forecast ROEs). We therefore lower price targets across the group, while leaving recommendations unchanged. Raised growth expectations or increased visibility into 2022 could justify higher target multiples in time, but, in the context of reductions to 2020E forecasts (with more to come from consensus), we see greater defensiveness among Personal lines insurers, and more value if macro improves quickly among Life insurers. Lancashire is the most defensive of the sub-sector by underwriting exposure and investment portfolio, with the greatest opportunities if macro weakness translates to a significantly better (re)insurance market.