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17 Sep 2019
Investec UK Daily: 17/09/2019
AB INBEV (ABI:EBR), 0 | Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (ABI:BRU), 0 | Alfa Financial Software Holdings Plc (ALFA:LON), 238 | British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BATS:LON), 3,356 | Churchill China plc (CHH:LON), 695 | Coca-Cola HBC AG (CCH:LON), 3,915 | Cranswick plc (CWK:LON), 5,240 | Diageo plc (DGE:LON), 1,986 | Eagle Eye Solutions Group PLC (EYE:LON), 202 | Hilton Food Group plc (HFG:LON), 872 | Imperial Brands PLC (IMB:LON), 2,836 | Johnson Service Group PLC (JSG:LON), 149 | Marks and Spencer Group plc (MKS:LON), 376 | Ocado Group PLC (OCDO:LON), 248 | Pernod Ricard (RI:EPA), 0 | Pernod Ricard SA (RI:PAR), 0 | Reckitt Benckiser (Bangladesh) PLC (RECKITTBEN:DHA), 0 | Reckitt Benckiser Group plc (RKT:LON), 5,038 | J Sainsbury plc (SBRY:LON), 288 | Tate & Lyle PLC (TATE:LON), 540 | Tesco PLC (TSCO:LON), 394 | Treatt plc (TET:LON), 272 | Zotefoams plc (ZTF:LON), 304

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Investec UK Daily: 17/09/2019
AB INBEV (ABI:EBR), 0 | Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (ABI:BRU), 0 | Alfa Financial Software Holdings Plc (ALFA:LON), 238 | British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BATS:LON), 3,356 | Churchill China plc (CHH:LON), 695 | Coca-Cola HBC AG (CCH:LON), 3,915 | Cranswick plc (CWK:LON), 5,240 | Diageo plc (DGE:LON), 1,986 | Eagle Eye Solutions Group PLC (EYE:LON), 202 | Hilton Food Group plc (HFG:LON), 872 | Imperial Brands PLC (IMB:LON), 2,836 | Johnson Service Group PLC (JSG:LON), 149 | Marks and Spencer Group plc (MKS:LON), 376 | Ocado Group PLC (OCDO:LON), 248 | Pernod Ricard (RI:EPA), 0 | Pernod Ricard SA (RI:PAR), 0 | Reckitt Benckiser (Bangladesh) PLC (RECKITTBEN:DHA), 0 | Reckitt Benckiser Group plc (RKT:LON), 5,038 | J Sainsbury plc (SBRY:LON), 288 | Tate & Lyle PLC (TATE:LON), 540 | Tesco PLC (TSCO:LON), 394 | Treatt plc (TET:LON), 272 | Zotefoams plc (ZTF:LON), 304
- Published:
17 Sep 2019 -
Author:
Ross Broadfoot | Julian Yates | Roger Phillips | Kellie McAvoy | Nicola Mallard | Michael Donnelly | Ian Hunter, PhD | Alicia Forry, CFA -
Pages:
13 -
Yesterday’s profit warning was not a complete surprise after a spate of board departures and long radio silence. The FY19 revenue shortfall (c.£9m) is actually better than our worst-case scenarios, but drops entirely through to the bottom line, plus cost inflation exacerbates the profit downgrade to c.60%. With >1 year of cost covered by net cash, the company can afford to retain staff and take this level of bottom-line pain. This is probably the long-run right thing to do, albeit reflecting that decision-making here is akin to a private growth company.
The shares have likely reached the nadir of bad news and poor sentiment, on the basis that: i) the company has warned on both and FY20, including citing macro issues for the first time, ii) there is £4m of licence / maintenance optionality, but this is now incremental, i.e. management is grasping the nettle on removing upside from core numbers, iii) it is hard to envision another spate of boardroom departures to unsettle the market similar to what we have seen in FY19. The shares falling c.17% on a 60% downgrade highlights this bottoming out process, in our view. Given macro weakness has been highlighted, the cyclicality of ODS revenue is a key remaining question to be answered at the interims.
Financials are cyclically troughing, with EBIT having dived from >£40m three years ago to single digit millions this year; near-term earnings multiples are somewhat irrelevant at this point. A trough EV/Sales multiple of <3x looks attractive on the assumption that this is the bottom, and our new TP reflects a 5x multiple that we think acceptable for a double-digit growth stock with >20% margins, which is reasonable for this business in more normal times.
On this basis, we move from Hold to a Buy; we think the accounting is clean here, the nettle has finally been fully grasped on messaging, and ‘special-situations’ type interest should start to build following interims next week.