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20 Apr 2021
Investec UK Daily: 20/04/2021
Associated British Foods plc (ABF:LON), 2,250 | British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BATS:LON), 4,134 | Hargreaves Services plc (HSP:LON), 721 | James Fisher and Sons plc (FSJ:LON), 328 | Mony Group PLC (MONY:LON), 206 | Petrofac Limited (PFC:LON), 3.8 | Renalytix Plc (RENX:LON), 5.8

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Investec UK Daily: 20/04/2021
Associated British Foods plc (ABF:LON), 2,250 | British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BATS:LON), 4,134 | Hargreaves Services plc (HSP:LON), 721 | James Fisher and Sons plc (FSJ:LON), 328 | Mony Group PLC (MONY:LON), 206 | Petrofac Limited (PFC:LON), 3.8 | Renalytix Plc (RENX:LON), 5.8
- Published:
20 Apr 2021 -
Author:
Alastair Reid | Ross Broadfoot | Ben Bourne | Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert | Michael Donnelly | Alicia Forry, CFA | Anthony Geard | Thomas Rands, CFA | Dr Jens Lindqvist -
Pages:
11 -
AO World reported UK sales accelerated again in Q4, +88%, having been +67.2% in Q3 (H1: +54%). Dixons UK&I business has to date reported LfLs up 8% in P3 (with online sales +121%) having been +16% at H1 (with online sales +145%). Dixons will report pre-close sales on Wednesday 28th April.
UK&I forecasts at Dixons Carphone look increasingly conservative: our estimates assume momentum slows, post P3, with LfL growth of 1.8% in H2 - implying flat to negative LfLs over the remaining weeks of H2 during Lockdown #3. Given further measures to provide more assisted selling online, with ShopLiv in place, we expect Dixons to have picked up even more online market share then it did in Lockdown #1 - when UK&I LfL sales were +4% with online sales +218%, for the 8 weeks to 27th June. Our cost assumptions this year may also prove to be too cautious as well. We assume opex falls by £47m in H2 (-9.5% YoY versus £52m, -11%YoY, in H1). Within our H2 opex forecast, we assume furlough relief of just £27m, below H1’s £38m, despite management likely to have used as much as three months of furlough in H2, versus for 7 weeks in H1 (see further details on page 19 of our note here).
Upside to next year’s forecasts? We expect that, with demand pulled forward into FY21 from outer years, coupled with a tough macroeconomic backdrop, the UK&I electrical market is likely to remain subdued in FY22 and FY23. Therefore, we assume LfLs decline at UK&I by 6.5% in FY22E, before returning to growth in FY23E. However, with the business rates holiday now extended to the end of June, we think there could be as much as c. £14m of upside to our FY22E UK&I EBIT forecast.
In the round: As we have previously argued, a slimmed-down Mobile business should reduce profit drag going forward, and it could even become disruptive. If Dixons can generate £1bn of FCF between FY20 and FY24, as targeted by management, the valuation is very much underpinned. Buy.