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29 Oct 2020
Investec UK Daily: 29/10/2020

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Investec UK Daily: 29/10/2020
AB INBEV (ABI:EBR), 0 | Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (ABI:BRU), 0 | Alfa Financial Software Holdings Plc (ALFA:LON), 236 | Hilton Food Group plc (HFG:LON), 898 | Lloyds Banking Group plc (LLOY:LON), 71.3 | Resolute Mining Limited (RSG:ASX), 0 | Standard Chartered PLC (STAN:LON), 1,049
- Published:
29 Oct 2020 -
Author:
Julian Yates | Roger Phillips | Nicola Mallard | Hunter Hillcoat | Alicia Forry, CFA | Ian Gordon | Anthony Geard | Alex Smith | Nathan Piper -
Pages:
10 -
Strong momentum. Late stage pipeline momentum mentioned at the interims has improved further in H2, with two contract wins, plus a material five year extension of licence / maintenance with an existing customer that was not forecast or included in previous pipeline analysis. There is some impact to Q4 from the wins, including potential for some one-off licence recognition. However, the bulk of recognition will fall in FY21-FY22 for the two US wins.
Strategic progression. Both wins are strategic in the sense that Alfa is a leader in US auto new business and so one (large) contract win builds further upon its strength. Meanwhile, equipment finance is a major US penetration opportunity (broadly, asset finance splits 50:50 auto / equipment) with legacy competitors. Alfa has many equipment finance customers in Europe / ROW, including some specialists (i.e. agriculture), so the latest win with a major US broad-based lessor is encouraging. The extension is a good example of the lock-in power of Alfa’s IP, and we see overall momentum (including the recent Alfa Start US auto go-live) as evidence of a market-leading product set, and the product strategy firing on all cylinders.
Q3 trading / outlook. Q3 revenues of £16m are in line with last year and lower than H1, which was expected due to holiday utilisation patterns. Our new forecasts imply a flat Q4-on-Q3 which implies a heavy holiday effect on Q4 utilisation and so could prove conservative. Coverage of FY21E has grown nicely; in March we only expected £3m of FY20E EBIT, and in our view the approach to guidance on out-year forecasts should be seen in this context.
Upgraded forecasts. FY20E: revenue £70.2m (prev. £66.9m) +5%, EBIT £15.0m (£10.0m) +50%, EPS 3.7p (2.4p) +54%, FY21E: revenue £67.2m (£63.5m) +6%, EBIT £10.1m (£7.5m) +35%, EPS 2.3p (1.7p) +35%.
View. Our TP increases to 150p (6x FY20E revenue) and we reiterate our Buy; Alfa is demonstrating some of the strongest momentum in our coverage universe.