AGM's diversifying loan volume will continue to keep net effective spread (NES) elevated above historical levels, in our view, and drive strong core earnings growth.
As a secondary market government-sponsored enterprise (GSE), AGM benefits from a low-cost funding profile, often being able to issue debt at narrow spreads above U.S. Treasuries, a key advantage.
AGM announced the appointment of Matthew Pullins as its CFO and treasurer, effective in 4Q:25. Mr. Pullins brings more than two decades of corporate finance experience, including senior roles at PNC Financial Services Group, Inc., where he recently served as CFO of Capital Markets and previously oversaw regulatory reporting and loan accounting activities supporting a $290 billion loan portfolio.
In our 2026 outlook, we estimate steady 7%-9% year over year growth in net business volume and 8% growth in NES revenue to $410.5 million. Our core EPS estimate of $18.86, up 8% from 2025, is driven by higher spread volume in the Infrastructure Finance business, which we expect to support a 16% return on equity (ROE).
Despite our estimated loan loss provisioning in 2026, we believe AGM's portfolio remains well diversified by commodity and geography, helping to buffer credit events that we believe will be episodic in nature.
AGM maintains a robust capital position well above regulatory requirements, which we anticipate will support the company's shareholder return initiatives through opportunistic buybacks and a steady dividend payout ratio of about 34%.
We maintain our $226 price target, based on an 11x multiple applied to our 2027 EPS estimate of $20.22. Our moderate risk rating balances secular growth from diversification trends toward higher spread volume with economic uncertainty.
08 Jan 2026
2026 Outlook: Continued Growth In High-Spread Volume Creates Compelling Setup For 2026; Loan Diversification To Buffer Credit; Note New CFO, Strong Capital Position; Maintain $226 Price Target
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2026 Outlook: Continued Growth In High-Spread Volume Creates Compelling Setup For 2026; Loan Diversification To Buffer Credit; Note New CFO, Strong Capital Position; Maintain $226 Price Target
Federal Agricultural Mortgage (AGM:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
08 Jan 2026 -
Author:
Brendan McCarthy, CFA -
Pages:
10 -
AGM's diversifying loan volume will continue to keep net effective spread (NES) elevated above historical levels, in our view, and drive strong core earnings growth.
As a secondary market government-sponsored enterprise (GSE), AGM benefits from a low-cost funding profile, often being able to issue debt at narrow spreads above U.S. Treasuries, a key advantage.
AGM announced the appointment of Matthew Pullins as its CFO and treasurer, effective in 4Q:25. Mr. Pullins brings more than two decades of corporate finance experience, including senior roles at PNC Financial Services Group, Inc., where he recently served as CFO of Capital Markets and previously oversaw regulatory reporting and loan accounting activities supporting a $290 billion loan portfolio.
In our 2026 outlook, we estimate steady 7%-9% year over year growth in net business volume and 8% growth in NES revenue to $410.5 million. Our core EPS estimate of $18.86, up 8% from 2025, is driven by higher spread volume in the Infrastructure Finance business, which we expect to support a 16% return on equity (ROE).
Despite our estimated loan loss provisioning in 2026, we believe AGM's portfolio remains well diversified by commodity and geography, helping to buffer credit events that we believe will be episodic in nature.
AGM maintains a robust capital position well above regulatory requirements, which we anticipate will support the company's shareholder return initiatives through opportunistic buybacks and a steady dividend payout ratio of about 34%.
We maintain our $226 price target, based on an 11x multiple applied to our 2027 EPS estimate of $20.22. Our moderate risk rating balances secular growth from diversification trends toward higher spread volume with economic uncertainty.