We expect AGM's diversifying loan volume will keep net effective spread (NES) elevated above historical levels and drive strong core earnings growth.
As a secondary market government-sponsored enterprise (GSE), AGM benefits from a low-cost funding profile, often being able to issue debt at narrow spreads above U.S. Treasuries, a key advantage in our view.
After results outperformed our 2Q:25 NES estimate, we take up our 2025 and 2026 estimates to imply healthy 7% volume growth, as AGM captures higher-spread volume, fueling core earnings growth.
AGM generated a quarterly record in NES revenue in 2Q:25 of about $93.9 million, up 12% from 2Q:24 and exceeding our estimate. Despite an outsized $7.8 million credit provision, core EPS registered a quarterly record of $4.32 in 2Q:25.
Despite added uncertainty from tariff policy in the U.S. and abroad, we see a high likelihood of continued government support for the agricultural sector.
AGM maintained a strong capital position at 2Q:25, bolstered by retained earnings, with total core capital of $1.6 billion, exceeding the statutory requirement by 63%.
AMG increased its class C common stock repurchase program to $50.0 million, We think the company could opportunistically allocate capital to share buybacks.
We raise our rice target to $226 (from $216), based on a steady 12x our 2026 EPS forecast of $19.03 (from $18.58). Our moderate risk rating balances secular growth from diversification trends toward higher spread lines of business with economic uncertainty.
28 Nov 2025
Raise Price Target To $226 (From $216); Increase Estimates On NES Revenue Momentum; Total Business Volume Surpassed $30 Billion In 2Q:25; Record NES Revenue, Core EPS In 2Q:25
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Raise Price Target To $226 (From $216); Increase Estimates On NES Revenue Momentum; Total Business Volume Surpassed $30 Billion In 2Q:25; Record NES Revenue, Core EPS In 2Q:25
Federal Agricultural Mortgage (AGM:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
28 Nov 2025 -
Author:
Brendan McCarthy | Brendan McCarthy, CFA -
Pages:
10 -
We expect AGM's diversifying loan volume will keep net effective spread (NES) elevated above historical levels and drive strong core earnings growth.
As a secondary market government-sponsored enterprise (GSE), AGM benefits from a low-cost funding profile, often being able to issue debt at narrow spreads above U.S. Treasuries, a key advantage in our view.
After results outperformed our 2Q:25 NES estimate, we take up our 2025 and 2026 estimates to imply healthy 7% volume growth, as AGM captures higher-spread volume, fueling core earnings growth.
AGM generated a quarterly record in NES revenue in 2Q:25 of about $93.9 million, up 12% from 2Q:24 and exceeding our estimate. Despite an outsized $7.8 million credit provision, core EPS registered a quarterly record of $4.32 in 2Q:25.
Despite added uncertainty from tariff policy in the U.S. and abroad, we see a high likelihood of continued government support for the agricultural sector.
AGM maintained a strong capital position at 2Q:25, bolstered by retained earnings, with total core capital of $1.6 billion, exceeding the statutory requirement by 63%.
AMG increased its class C common stock repurchase program to $50.0 million, We think the company could opportunistically allocate capital to share buybacks.
We raise our rice target to $226 (from $216), based on a steady 12x our 2026 EPS forecast of $19.03 (from $18.58). Our moderate risk rating balances secular growth from diversification trends toward higher spread lines of business with economic uncertainty.