We expect AGM's diversifying loan volume will keep net effective spread (NES) elevated above historical levels.
As a secondary market government-sponsored enterprise (GSE), AGM benefits from a low-cost funding profile, often being able to issue debt at narrow spreads above U.S. Treasuries, a key advantage in our view.
AGM announced that CFO Aparna Ramesh will resign at the end of July to join the Federal Home Loan Banks Office of Finance as CEO. In our view, Ms. Ramesh contributed meaningfully to AGM's expansion into higher spread business lines, prudent balance sheet management, and other key growth initiatives since joining AGM in 2020. Core EPS have grown impressively at an 11% CAGR since 2020 under current leadership. AGM plans to retain an executive search firm for its next CFO.
We estimate core EPS expanded 20% to a quarterly record of $4.63 in 2Q:25, driven by diversification efforts toward business lines with higher spreads. We also point out a favorable comparison versus 2Q:24 due to a $6.2 million credit expense in the prior year period.
Despite added uncertainty from tariff policy in the U.S. and abroad, we see a high likelihood of government support for the agricultural sector.
The balance sheet remains strong, with earnings growth contributing to a strong capital position and enabling consistent dividend payments. The company has grown its dividend at a nearly 28% CAGR since 2010 (5%-6% for comparable indices).
Our $216 price target is based on about 12x our 2026 EPS forecast of $18.58. Our moderate risk rating balances secular growth from diversification trends toward higher spread lines of business with economic uncertainty.
28 Nov 2025
CFO Resigns; Long Term Thesis Remains Intact; Estimate Core EPS Expanded 20% In 2Q:25; Note Securitization; Secular Growth Backed By Diversifying Volume; Maintain $216 Target
Sign up for free to access
Get access to the latest equity research in real-time from 12 commissioned providers.
Get access to the latest equity research in real-time from 12 commissioned providers.
CFO Resigns; Long Term Thesis Remains Intact; Estimate Core EPS Expanded 20% In 2Q:25; Note Securitization; Secular Growth Backed By Diversifying Volume; Maintain $216 Target
Federal Agricultural Mortgage (AGM:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
28 Nov 2025 -
Author:
Brendan McCarthy | Brendan McCarthy, CFA -
Pages:
11 -
We expect AGM's diversifying loan volume will keep net effective spread (NES) elevated above historical levels.
As a secondary market government-sponsored enterprise (GSE), AGM benefits from a low-cost funding profile, often being able to issue debt at narrow spreads above U.S. Treasuries, a key advantage in our view.
AGM announced that CFO Aparna Ramesh will resign at the end of July to join the Federal Home Loan Banks Office of Finance as CEO. In our view, Ms. Ramesh contributed meaningfully to AGM's expansion into higher spread business lines, prudent balance sheet management, and other key growth initiatives since joining AGM in 2020. Core EPS have grown impressively at an 11% CAGR since 2020 under current leadership. AGM plans to retain an executive search firm for its next CFO.
We estimate core EPS expanded 20% to a quarterly record of $4.63 in 2Q:25, driven by diversification efforts toward business lines with higher spreads. We also point out a favorable comparison versus 2Q:24 due to a $6.2 million credit expense in the prior year period.
Despite added uncertainty from tariff policy in the U.S. and abroad, we see a high likelihood of government support for the agricultural sector.
The balance sheet remains strong, with earnings growth contributing to a strong capital position and enabling consistent dividend payments. The company has grown its dividend at a nearly 28% CAGR since 2010 (5%-6% for comparable indices).
Our $216 price target is based on about 12x our 2026 EPS forecast of $18.58. Our moderate risk rating balances secular growth from diversification trends toward higher spread lines of business with economic uncertainty.