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  • 28 Nov 2025

CFO Resigns; Long Term Thesis Remains Intact; Estimate Core EPS Expanded 20% In 2Q:25; Note Securitization; Secular Growth Backed By Diversifying Volume; Maintain $216 Target


Federal Agricultural Mortgage (AGM:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%


  • Sidoti & Company
    • Brendan McCarthy | Brendan McCarthy, CFA

    • 11 pages


 

We expect AGM's diversifying loan volume will keep net effective spread (NES) elevated above historical levels. As a secondary market government-sponsored enterprise (GSE), AGM benefits from a low-cost funding profile, often being able to issue debt at narrow spreads above U.S. Treasuries, a key advantage in our view. AGM announced that CFO Aparna Ramesh will resign at the end of July to join the Federal Home Loan Banks Office of Finance as CEO. In our view, Ms. Ramesh contributed meaningfully to AGM's expansion into higher spread business lines, prudent balance sheet management, and other key growth initiatives since joining AGM in 2020. Core EPS have grown impressively at an 11% CAGR since 2020 under current leadership. AGM plans to retain an executive search firm for its next CFO. We estimate core EPS expanded 20% to a quarterly record of $4.63 in 2Q:25, driven by diversification efforts toward business lines with higher spreads. We also point out a favorable comparison versus 2Q:24 due to a $6.2 million credit expense in the prior year period. Despite added uncertainty from tariff policy in the U.S. and abroad, we see a high likelihood of government support for the agricultural sector. The balance sheet remains strong, with earnings growth contributing to a strong capital position and enabling consistent dividend payments. The company has grown its dividend at a nearly 28% CAGR since 2010 (5%-6% for comparable indices). Our $216 price target is based on about 12x our 2026 EPS forecast of $18.58. Our moderate risk rating balances secular growth from diversification trends toward higher spread lines of business with economic uncertainty.

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CFO Resigns; Long Term Thesis Remains Intact; Estimate Core EPS Expanded 20% In 2Q:25; Note Securitization; Secular Growth Backed By Diversifying Volume; Maintain $216 Target


Federal Agricultural Mortgage (AGM:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%


  • Published: 28 Nov 2025
  • Author: Brendan McCarthy | Brendan McCarthy, CFA
  • Pages: 11
  • Sidoti & Company


We expect AGM's diversifying loan volume will keep net effective spread (NES) elevated above historical levels. As a secondary market government-sponsored enterprise (GSE), AGM benefits from a low-cost funding profile, often being able to issue debt at narrow spreads above U.S. Treasuries, a key advantage in our view. AGM announced that CFO Aparna Ramesh will resign at the end of July to join the Federal Home Loan Banks Office of Finance as CEO. In our view, Ms. Ramesh contributed meaningfully to AGM's expansion into higher spread business lines, prudent balance sheet management, and other key growth initiatives since joining AGM in 2020. Core EPS have grown impressively at an 11% CAGR since 2020 under current leadership. AGM plans to retain an executive search firm for its next CFO. We estimate core EPS expanded 20% to a quarterly record of $4.63 in 2Q:25, driven by diversification efforts toward business lines with higher spreads. We also point out a favorable comparison versus 2Q:24 due to a $6.2 million credit expense in the prior year period. Despite added uncertainty from tariff policy in the U.S. and abroad, we see a high likelihood of government support for the agricultural sector. The balance sheet remains strong, with earnings growth contributing to a strong capital position and enabling consistent dividend payments. The company has grown its dividend at a nearly 28% CAGR since 2010 (5%-6% for comparable indices). Our $216 price target is based on about 12x our 2026 EPS forecast of $18.58. Our moderate risk rating balances secular growth from diversification trends toward higher spread lines of business with economic uncertainty.

More Content

More Content

Highlight CEO Transition; Trim Estimates On Higher Loan Provisioning; Expect Healthy NES Growth In 3Q:25; Secular Growth Backed By Diversifying Volume; Maintain $226 Price Target

Companies: Federal Agricultural Mortgage

Sidoti & Company

The Metals Company:Q3 balance sheet strength positive

Companies: Timbercreek Mortgage Investment

Edison

Raise Price Target To $226 (From $216); Increase Estimates On NES Revenue Momentum; Total Business Volume Surpassed $30 Billion In 2Q:25; Record NES Revenue, Core EPS In 2Q:25

Companies: Federal Agricultural Mortgage

Sidoti & Company

The Metals Company:Capital markets event adds positive colour

Companies: Timbercreek Mortgage Investment

Edison

Introduce 2027 Estimates; AGM Posted Record NES, Core Earnings In 3Q:25; Secular Growth Driven By High Spread Volume; Diverse Loan Portfolio Is Key Strength; Maintain $226 Price Target

Companies: Federal Agricultural Mortgage

Sidoti & Company
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