We expect AGM's diversifying loan volume to keep net effective spread (NES) elevated above historical levels and drive strong core earnings growth.
In 3Q:25, Farmer Mac announced that CEO Brad Nordholm plans to retire in March 2027. Current COO Zach Carpenter, who has played a key role in AGM's diversifying business model, will step into the CEO role upon Mr. Nordholm's retirement. We view the long transition timeline and Mr. Carpenter's experience favorably.
We pare our EPS estimates due to a higher estimated amount of loan loss reserves, driven by AGM's strong volume growth in higher-spread lines of business. Our estimates also reflect ongoing uncertainty in the U.S. ag economy with rising input costs, declining commodity prices, and trade disruptions.
AGM's total core capital rose to $1.6 billion at 2Q:25, exceeding the statutory requirement by 63%, due to retained earnings. The 3Q:25 issuance of $100 million Series H preferred stock bolsters the capital position and enables volume growth in accretive segments, in our view.
AGM increased its Class C common stock repurchase program to $50.0 million in 2Q:25, and we think the company will opportunistically buy back shares.
Our $226 price target is based on about 12x our 2026 EPS forecast of $18.86 (from $19.03). Our moderate risk rating balances secular growth from diversification trends toward higher spread lines of business with economic uncertainty.
28 Nov 2025
Highlight CEO Transition; Trim Estimates On Higher Loan Provisioning; Expect Healthy NES Growth In 3Q:25; Secular Growth Backed By Diversifying Volume; Maintain $226 Price Target
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Highlight CEO Transition; Trim Estimates On Higher Loan Provisioning; Expect Healthy NES Growth In 3Q:25; Secular Growth Backed By Diversifying Volume; Maintain $226 Price Target
Federal Agricultural Mortgage (AGM:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
28 Nov 2025 -
Author:
Brendan McCarthy, CFA -
Pages:
10 -
We expect AGM's diversifying loan volume to keep net effective spread (NES) elevated above historical levels and drive strong core earnings growth.
In 3Q:25, Farmer Mac announced that CEO Brad Nordholm plans to retire in March 2027. Current COO Zach Carpenter, who has played a key role in AGM's diversifying business model, will step into the CEO role upon Mr. Nordholm's retirement. We view the long transition timeline and Mr. Carpenter's experience favorably.
We pare our EPS estimates due to a higher estimated amount of loan loss reserves, driven by AGM's strong volume growth in higher-spread lines of business. Our estimates also reflect ongoing uncertainty in the U.S. ag economy with rising input costs, declining commodity prices, and trade disruptions.
AGM's total core capital rose to $1.6 billion at 2Q:25, exceeding the statutory requirement by 63%, due to retained earnings. The 3Q:25 issuance of $100 million Series H preferred stock bolsters the capital position and enables volume growth in accretive segments, in our view.
AGM increased its Class C common stock repurchase program to $50.0 million in 2Q:25, and we think the company will opportunistically buy back shares.
Our $226 price target is based on about 12x our 2026 EPS forecast of $18.86 (from $19.03). Our moderate risk rating balances secular growth from diversification trends toward higher spread lines of business with economic uncertainty.