Where are we in the cycle? There has been plenty of debate about what stage of the cycle we are in at present, and indeed the shape and duration of the current prolonged upcycle. We are, clearly in the more mature stages of the cycle and it is true to say that certain economic indicators have weakened. It currently appears that we are not heading into a downturn, or a recession, but rather a flattening-off in the global long up-cycle. The good news is that Chinese stimulus measures appear to be having some positive effects (recent Q1 data show GDP growth of 6.4% while industrial production rebounded 8.5% in March); equally, Sino/US trade disputes appear to be progressing towards being resolved, or at least ameliorated, which holds open the possibility of a relaxation of tariffs (or at least no additional ones). UK data continues to point to meagre growth, but this is being affected by Brexit. Growth remains lacklustre and the recent slight increase in PMI is related to additional Brexit buffer stock-building in March. The risk now is that the EU ‘flextension’ until the Autumn means that there is scope for some short-term destocking – which will cause a gap in some manufacturers’ orders. This lack of clarity and demand volatility causes production inefficiencies and makes business planning and forecasting more difficult, causing some to postpone investment decisions. The decline in business investment remains a serious issue for heavier, late-stage industrial equipment manufacturers and for longer-term UK competitiveness. This is especially the case given the revolution in manufacturing coming from IoT automation, robotics and other innovations such as electric vehicles/battery technology, 3D printing etc. If we fall behind in these areas, it will seriously damage longer-term productivity and international competitiveness