Spot commodity price scenario. Under a scenario using spot commodity prices and FX rates, the major miners are generally trading at substantial (30-40%) discounts to their spot valuations. The key exception is GLEN, which is currently trading c.20% above its spot valuation. It would not appear, therefore, that the market is simply valuing the companies at spot. Spot scenario with lower iron ore. The spot valuations may be distorted by the resiliently high iron ore price (currently c.US$83/t for 62% Fe fines) which, in our view, reflects an expectation of Chinese stimulus, directed primarily at fixed asset investment as has traditionally been the case. Anglo American’s spot valuation also reflects currently high PGM prices, which are supported by structural supply constraints. If we reduce the iron ore price to US$61/t, together with PGM prices akin to our long-term prices, this then brings most of the miners’ valuations in line with current share prices. Such a scenario would imply an immediate retraction in the iron ore price to slightly below consensus’ long-term (real) price of US$66/t. This would still not, however, resolve the issue of GLEN at spot being worth less than the current share price. Spot scenario with lower iron ore and higher copper. It is possible that the market may also be reflecting a more optimistic future for battery metals than suggested by spot commodity prices. If we therefore increase the copper price to US$3.0/lb (vs US$2.5/lb spot) and the nickel price to US$7.0/lb (vs US$5.5/lb spot), both in line with consensus long-term (real) prices, then GLEN’s valuation finally aligns with the current share price. To keep the other companies aligned at the same time, we have to reduce the iron ore price 12% further, to US$58/t. In summary. With the coronavirus crisis seemingly leaving the market without any comfort in global growth forecasts, it appears to have taken to using spot and/or long-term commodity price forecasts to value the major miners. This goes significantly beyond the scenarios and the potential commodity price outcomes that we presented in a previous note (Coronavirus scenarios already priced in, 21 February). All companies now offer value. Following the sharp pullback in share prices – down 20-25% since first news of coronavirus – all four companies now offer forecast total returns that could command Buy recommendations. This remains the case even under the most severe potential outcome outlined in our previous coronavirus note. That said, our previous analysis suggested RIO and BHP should offer the greatest earnings resilience, on the back of expected Chinese stimulus.