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  • 02 Jul 2020

Investec UK Daily: 02/07/2020


Associated British Foods plc (ABF:LON), 2,207 | Avon Technologies PLC (AVON:LON), 1,919 | Barclays PLC (BARC:LON), 362 | Gamma Communications PLC (GAMA:LON), 1,049 | Lloyds Banking Group plc (LLOY:LON), 78.8

  • Investec Bank
    • Ben Bourne | Julian Yates | Roger Phillips | Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert | Ian Gordon | Thomas Rands, CFA | Rory Smith

    • 9 pages


 

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Investec UK Daily: 02/07/2020


Associated British Foods plc (ABF:LON), 2,207 | Avon Technologies PLC (AVON:LON), 1,919 | Barclays PLC (BARC:LON), 362 | Gamma Communications PLC (GAMA:LON), 1,049 | Lloyds Banking Group plc (LLOY:LON), 78.8

  • Published: 02 Jul 2020
  • Author: Ben Bourne | Julian Yates | Roger Phillips | Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert | Ian Gordon | Thomas Rands, CFA | Rory Smith
  • Pages: 9
  • Investec Bank


Acquiring HFO brings a high quality channel-driven SIP trunking and cloud PBX asset (c.70% of EBITDA) that represents an initial move into Germany, Europe’s largest business telecoms market. Alongside this comes a low margin, but established mobile distribution business. Broadly similar to Gamma’s makeup several years ago, we see the IP telephony unit as high growth (i.e. double-digit) / high margin, and the mobile unit as having a flat to declining profile. Compared to published 2019 financials, COVID-19 has probably accelerated these unit profiles. Our forecasts move to assume a six month contribution in 2020E with broadly flat EBITDA assumed in H2/20E and 2021E on 2019. After some extra depreciation, amortisation, tax and a small minority interest (reflecting initial 80% ownership) EPS accretion is c.1% in 2020E and 2% for 2021E. Ultimately, HFO has been acquired to grow significantly, and should benefit from rising margins through mix effect. However, given wider economic uncertainties, pushing the boat out on assumptions at this stage does not feel sensible. At first glance, the range of potential total consideration implies a trailing EV/EBITDA multiple of 10–13x. Stretch targets triggering full pay-out are not disclosed, but we assume also broadly correlate to paying a 10x EBITDA multiple, i.e. implying substantive growth in IP telephony EBITDA. With net cash of £37.7m ending H1/20 and initial consideration plus assumed debt of c.£21m, a healthy surplus cash balance is retained at all times. Taking into account acquisition consideration in H1 (Exactive, Voz Telecom, Nimsys) and the dividend, the disclosed net cash figure implies healthy H1 FCF generation. We reiterate Buy and retain our TP. On top of resilient UK performance, a significant part of the long term strategy has now been at least partially executed; in establishing a pan-European asset with potential to layer on incremental growth from rising IP telephony penetration as a secular trend.

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