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  • 09 Jun 2020

Investec UK Daily: 09/06/2020


Associated British Foods plc (ABF:LON), 1,942 | ASOS Plc (ASC:LON), 289 | B&M European Value Retail SA (BME:LON), 240 | boohoo group Plc (DEBS:LON), 13.6 | British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BATS:LON), 4,194 | Card Factory Plc (CARD:LON), 107 | Greggs plc (GRG:LON), 1,611 | Halfords Group Plc (HFD:LON), 137 | JD Sports Fashion Plc (JD:LON), 92.5 | Kingfisher Plc (KGF:LON), 245 | Marks and Spencer Group plc (MKS:LON), 343 | Metro Bank Holdings Plc (MTRO:LON), 127 | Naked Wines plc (WINE:LON), 79.5 | Next plc (NXT:LON), 12,058 | OSB Group PLC (OSB:LON), 552 | Oxford Instruments plc (OXIG:LON), 1,843 | Paragon Banking Group PLC (PAG:LON), 880 | WH Smith PLC (SMWH:LON), 690 | TheWorks.co.uk plc (WRKS:LON), 48.7 | Watches of Switzerland Group PLC (WOSG:LON), 360

  • Investec Bank
    • Ben Bourne | Scott Cagehin | Julian Yates | Roger Phillips | Alicia Forry, CFA | Ian Gordon | Anthony Geard

    • 10 pages


 

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Investec UK Daily: 09/06/2020


Associated British Foods plc (ABF:LON), 1,942 | ASOS Plc (ASC:LON), 289 | B&M European Value Retail SA (BME:LON), 240 | boohoo group Plc (DEBS:LON), 13.6 | British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BATS:LON), 4,194 | Card Factory Plc (CARD:LON), 107 | Greggs plc (GRG:LON), 1,611 | Halfords Group Plc (HFD:LON), 137 | JD Sports Fashion Plc (JD:LON), 92.5 | Kingfisher Plc (KGF:LON), 245 | Marks and Spencer Group plc (MKS:LON), 343 | Metro Bank Holdings Plc (MTRO:LON), 127 | Naked Wines plc (WINE:LON), 79.5 | Next plc (NXT:LON), 12,058 | OSB Group PLC (OSB:LON), 552 | Oxford Instruments plc (OXIG:LON), 1,843 | Paragon Banking Group PLC (PAG:LON), 880 | WH Smith PLC (SMWH:LON), 690 | TheWorks.co.uk plc (WRKS:LON), 48.7 | Watches of Switzerland Group PLC (WOSG:LON), 360

  • Published: 09 Jun 2020
  • Author: Ben Bourne | Scott Cagehin | Julian Yates | Roger Phillips | Alicia Forry, CFA | Ian Gordon | Anthony Geard
  • Pages: 10
  • Investec Bank


May saw an improvement in both food and non-food trading versus April, though it was still another very testing and challenging month under lockdown for non-food retailers in particular. Figure 1 overleaf shows the weekly sales trend and scale of the recovery in May versus the lows when lockdown begun. Total retail sales decreased 5.9% (April down 19.1%) against a weak May last year, with LFL sales excluding temporary closed stores up 7.9%. Wide divergences in performance continues. Food 3-month average sales were up 5.6% with LFL up 8.7%. May’s Food sales were up yoy benefiting from sunshine, picnics, the slight easing of social distancing and sales switching from the restaurants & pub channels which remained closed. Non-food 3-month average sales decreased 21.8%, with LFL down 2.1%; May non-food sales were down yoy driven by clothing and furniture. Weak non-food performance was due to in-store sales which declined 50% (LFL -22% ex closed stores) over the 3 months to May. In May, in-store non-food LFL sales were still down by double digits. Stores remain in double-digit decline in all categories, though encouragingly all category performed better in May versus April. Online non-food sales were up 60% in May with penetration increasing to 62% versus 31% last year. The stronger performing non-food product categories were again office supplies/computing, fitness equipment and bicycles as well as DIY boosted by the opening of garden centres and anything kids’ entertainment related. Home accessories held up relatively well together with small domestic appliances. Clothing & Footwear remained in the bottom 3 worst performing categories together with jewellery. Furniture also struggled. Health & Beauty saw destocking in health-related categories with beauty still struggling. Eyes now focused on 15th June when all remaining non-essential stores reopen, though weak consumer confidence and social distancing are expected to hold back sales. The challenge will be managing costs and cash versus sales. The sector rebounded 14% over the last month versus the market up 9.5%. The strong tend to emerge stronger post a crisis and we continue to prefer the more consistent, proven growth stories like B&M, JD Sports, Greggs, Watches of Switzerland and WH Smith for the longer term. In the pure play space, we prefer ASOS over boohoo now.

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