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10 Mar 2020
Investec UK Daily: 10/03/2020
Associated British Foods plc (ABF:LON), 2,216 | ASOS Plc (ASC:LON), 284 | B&M European Value Retail SA (BME:LON), 240 | boohoo group Plc (DEBS:LON), 14.0 | British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BATS:LON), 4,100 | Card Factory Plc (CARD:LON), 105 | Close Brothers Group plc (CBG:LON), 474 | Greggs plc (GRG:LON), 1,626 | Halfords Group Plc (HFD:LON), 140 | Informa Plc (INF:LON), 891 | JD Sports Fashion Plc (JD:LON), 93.9 | Kingfisher Plc (KGF:LON), 253 | Marks and Spencer Group plc (MKS:LON), 342 | Midwich Group Plc (MIDW:LON), 204 | Naked Wines plc (WINE:LON), 84.7 | Next plc (NXT:LON), 12,245 | RELX PLC (REL:LON), 3,480 | WH Smith PLC (SMWH:LON), 662 | TheWorks.co.uk plc (WRKS:LON), 52.2 | Watches of Switzerland Group PLC (WOSG:LON), 351 | John Wood Group PLC (WG:LON), 18.6

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Investec UK Daily: 10/03/2020
Associated British Foods plc (ABF:LON), 2,216 | ASOS Plc (ASC:LON), 284 | B&M European Value Retail SA (BME:LON), 240 | boohoo group Plc (DEBS:LON), 14.0 | British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BATS:LON), 4,100 | Card Factory Plc (CARD:LON), 105 | Close Brothers Group plc (CBG:LON), 474 | Greggs plc (GRG:LON), 1,626 | Halfords Group Plc (HFD:LON), 140 | Informa Plc (INF:LON), 891 | JD Sports Fashion Plc (JD:LON), 93.9 | Kingfisher Plc (KGF:LON), 253 | Marks and Spencer Group plc (MKS:LON), 342 | Midwich Group Plc (MIDW:LON), 204 | Naked Wines plc (WINE:LON), 84.7 | Next plc (NXT:LON), 12,245 | RELX PLC (REL:LON), 3,480 | WH Smith PLC (SMWH:LON), 662 | TheWorks.co.uk plc (WRKS:LON), 52.2 | Watches of Switzerland Group PLC (WOSG:LON), 351 | John Wood Group PLC (WG:LON), 18.6
- Published:
10 Mar 2020 -
Author:
Alastair Reid | Ross Broadfoot | Ben Bourne | Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert | Michael Donnelly | Alicia Forry, CFA | Ian Gordon | Anthony Geard | Thomas Rands, CFA | Rory Smith -
Pages:
13 -
February’s retail sales were up 0.1% (12 month average -0.2%) with LFL sales down 0.4%. Storms Ciara, Dennis and Jorge did their best to dampen retail sales. There was a pickup in food and health & beauty towards the end of the month as concerns around coronavirus increased. Household appliances, computing, furniture, health & beauty and home accessories categories all reported growth.
Lacklustre non-food performance generally again. In-store non-food 3 month average sales were down 1.9% on a LFL basis and -1.8% in total, which is better than the 12 month average total of -3.1%. However, December sales, which included Black Friday last year, is still in the average and so the average is overstated. Online non-food sales fared better and were up 3.6% versus the 12 month average of 2.9%.
Home related categories generally performing better. Home appliances (the strongest growth since May) was the top category, partly replacement cycle, but also potentially short term replacement demand following the floods. Furniture saw its best growth since October, helped by some promotions, and home accessories sales were also up, though at a slower rate than January. However, home textiles had another disappointing month.
Clothing and footwear suffered, showing that the consumer still has a tight budget and is having to prioritise spending, in our view. The weather probably did not help as while it was wet, it was also warm. Department stores were affected by the weaker footfall, with rain over 3 weekends and half-term trade not as spread out as usual.
Computing had another good month, helped by Windows 7 reaching the end of its life and no longer getting security updates.
Food saw some benefit from coronavirus towards the end of the month and recorded its best growth since April last year, which was helped by Easter. Total food 3 month average food sales were up 1% (12 month average +1.2%) with LFL sales up 0.3%.
March is also going to be challenging for retailers from a supply chain and demand perspective as coronavirus spreads and cases pick up (see our recent report: Coronavirus - A fluid situation ). China may be starting to get back to work but factories are still generally not operating at full capacity. Most non-food retailers we have spoken to said stock levels were fine until after Easter/early summer, but there could be potential supply issues come the end of the summer/autumn.