Ahead of the Q3 trading update next Wednesday, we update for estimated catastrophe losses year-to-date, and a much slower earned premium pattern, as highlighted at H1. We forecast smaller absolute catastrophe losses than for peers, reflecting Conduit’s size and diversified business mix, albeit the reported combined ratio is likely to be impacted severely, due to the pattern of premium earned. Beyond 2021, slower premiums earned will impact the expense ratio, while we also take a more conservative view of the medium-term loss ratio, to reflect this year’s volatility, and uncertainty around catastrophe margins. We have left top-line forecasts unchanged – this may be conservative in the context of a better outlook for industry pricing, but we would note that top-line development in H1 lagged expectations. The net impact is that FY21E moves from a small forecast profit to a modest loss, FY22E EPS reduces by 30% and FY23E EPS by 20% on 10% and 8% increases in combined ratios, respectively. NAV per share falls by 2%/6%/8% in FY21E/22E/23E, with dividend forecasts actually up slightly after H1 beat. These cuts mean a reduction in FY22-25E ROTE from 15% to 14% - a material cut, but above our forecasts for Lancashire, and in-line with the best historic industry returns. On an unchanged methodology, with discounts for start-up and the management share, we lower our target TNAV multiple from 1.35x to 1.25x, and our price target from 600p to 540p, equating to 9x FY23E PE versus Bermudian reinsurers on 8-10x. Trading on c.1x FY21E TNAV after conservative cuts today, we continue to see the shares as offering good value and material upside, with a lack of reserving risk versus peers, weighting towards non-catastrophe lines seeing strong pricing, and a robust growth profile.