Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) reported 1Q:26 earnings per unit (EPU) of $0.45, missing our estimate by $0.11. We maintain our full year-estimate of $2.47, as well as our $29 price target and Moderate risk rating.
Coal revenue was 3% lower than our forecast due to a longwall move at the Hamilton mine and weather-related disruption of coal shipments. Operating expenses were 5% higher than our forecast due to the longwall move. ARLP maintained its full-year guidance for coal volume and pricing.
Offsetting the shortfall in coal revenue, royalty revenue was 15% higher than our forecast due to higher oil prices and the purchase of additional royalty assets. Management guided full-year royalty volumes 5% higher than previous guidance.
ARLP took an asset impairment charge of $37.8 million in the quarter due to the suspension of longwall production at the Mettiki mine. The company also wrote down the fair value of its bitcoin holding by $11.6 million. We treat the asset impairment as a non-recurring item, and the bitcoin write-down as an unrelated, non-operating item and exclude both from our earnings presentation.
Realized coal prices in 2026 reflect the roll-off of older contracts priced during the disruption of energy markets due to the war in Ukraine. Management reports firming pricing for 2027 delivery.
We forecast that continued growth in demand for electric power will sustain coal volumes and benefit coal pricing.
We maintain our $29 price target and Moderate risk rating. We derive our price target by applying an unchanged 11x multiple to our $2.47 estimate for 2026 EPU, plus $2.40 in expected cash distributions per year. Our Moderate risk rating is supported by ARLP's current debt to capital ratio of 22% and high interest coverage ratio of 7.7x.
30 Apr 2026
1Q:26 Earnings Lagged Our Estimate; Maintain Full-Year 2026 And 2027 Estimates And Strong Demand Outlook; Maintain $29 Price Target and Moderate Risk Rating
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1Q:26 Earnings Lagged Our Estimate; Maintain Full-Year 2026 And 2027 Estimates And Strong Demand Outlook; Maintain $29 Price Target and Moderate Risk Rating
Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
30 Apr 2026 -
Author:
Michael Mathison -
Pages:
11 -
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) reported 1Q:26 earnings per unit (EPU) of $0.45, missing our estimate by $0.11. We maintain our full year-estimate of $2.47, as well as our $29 price target and Moderate risk rating.
Coal revenue was 3% lower than our forecast due to a longwall move at the Hamilton mine and weather-related disruption of coal shipments. Operating expenses were 5% higher than our forecast due to the longwall move. ARLP maintained its full-year guidance for coal volume and pricing.
Offsetting the shortfall in coal revenue, royalty revenue was 15% higher than our forecast due to higher oil prices and the purchase of additional royalty assets. Management guided full-year royalty volumes 5% higher than previous guidance.
ARLP took an asset impairment charge of $37.8 million in the quarter due to the suspension of longwall production at the Mettiki mine. The company also wrote down the fair value of its bitcoin holding by $11.6 million. We treat the asset impairment as a non-recurring item, and the bitcoin write-down as an unrelated, non-operating item and exclude both from our earnings presentation.
Realized coal prices in 2026 reflect the roll-off of older contracts priced during the disruption of energy markets due to the war in Ukraine. Management reports firming pricing for 2027 delivery.
We forecast that continued growth in demand for electric power will sustain coal volumes and benefit coal pricing.
We maintain our $29 price target and Moderate risk rating. We derive our price target by applying an unchanged 11x multiple to our $2.47 estimate for 2026 EPU, plus $2.40 in expected cash distributions per year. Our Moderate risk rating is supported by ARLP's current debt to capital ratio of 22% and high interest coverage ratio of 7.7x.