We increase our price target to $31 from $29 as we increase our 2026 and 2027 EPS estimates to reflect ARLP's recently announced purchase of additional royalties. On June 8 ARLP disclosed a significant purchase of additional oil and natural gas royalties, increasing estimated royalty revenue by 40%. We view the additional royalties as accretive to earnings beginning with the closing of the transaction in 3Q:26.
Margins on royalty revenue are much higher than margins on coal revenue. Using the company's figures for segment-level revenue and expense, we estimate that full year 2025 operating margin on coal was 30%, while operating margin on oil and gas royalties was 85%. With royalty revenue increasing by 40%, we estimate operating income derived from royalties will increase by 34%.
The purchase expands ARLP's royalty interests in the Permian Basin, while providing an entry to the Haynesville Basin. 52% of the royalties being purchased are in the Permian Basin, where ARLP already has a significant presence. The remaining royalty rights are in the Delaware, Anadarko, Bakken and Haynesville Basins. Haynesville, where ARLP did not previously own any royalty rights, is a major source of natural gas for U.S. exports of LNG.
The purchase price for the additional royalties is $206.2 million, which will largely be financed by additional debt; we estimate this will increase ARLP's debt to capital ratio to 28% from 22% currently, and that interest coverage will decline to 4.2x from 4.7x. We forecast that increased free cash flow will be used to repay the increased debt within a few quarters.
We raise our price target to $31 from $29, and maintain our Moderate risk rating. We derive our price target by applying an unchanged 11x multiple to our increased estimate for 2026 earnings per unit (EPU) of $2.62 (from $2.47), plus $2.40 in expected cash distributions per year. Our Moderate risk rating is supported by our forecast for ARLP's 3Q:26 debt to capital ratio of 28%, and our forecasted interest coverage ratio of 4.2x.
The $206.2 million purchase price for the additional royalties will largely be financed by increased debt, which will increase the company's debt to total capital ratio and decrease interest coverage. The purchase of additional royalties will largely be financed by variable-rate bank debt. If the purchase price is entirely funded by debt, we estimate ARLP's debt to capital ratio will increase to 28% from 22% as of the end of 1Q:26, and interest coverage will decline to 4.2x from 4.7x. Going forward, we forecast that increased royalty revenue will meaningfully increase free cash flow, allowing the additional debt to be repaid within a few quarters.
Margins on royalty revenues are very attractive. Based on segment-level data supplied by the company, we estimate the operating margin on royalty revenue at 85%, compared to 30% on coal revenue.
Higher prices for oil produced in the U.S. are likely to increase the revenue received from royalties. Oil prices are highly volatile, but the Iran conflict has significantly increased the price of oil produced in the U.S. From the start of the conflict on February 28, 2026 to June 9, 2026, WTI prices are up approximately 30%, and have ranged as much as 50% higher.
We view the purchase of additional royalties as immediately accretive to earnings. We estimate that increased debt will increase interest costs by approximately $4 million per quarter, until debt paydowns begin. At the same time, we forecast increased royalty revenue of $17 million per quarter, offset by $3 million in increased cost of sales. We forecast that pre-tax income will increase by $10 million per quarter in 3Q:26, prior to the beginning of debt paydowns. As free cash flow increases and is deployed for debt paydowns, we forecast that lower interest expense will increase pre-tax income further. As a partnership, taxes on ARLP's income tend to be low; we model them at 6.5%.
10 Jun 2026
Raise Price Target To $31 From $29 As We Increase Our Earnings Estimates On The Purchase Of Additional Royalties; Maintain Moderate Risk Rating
Sign up for free to access
Get access to the latest equity research in real-time from 12 commissioned providers.
Get access to the latest equity research in real-time from 12 commissioned providers.
Raise Price Target To $31 From $29 As We Increase Our Earnings Estimates On The Purchase Of Additional Royalties; Maintain Moderate Risk Rating
Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
10 Jun 2026 -
Author:
Michael Mathison -
Pages:
12 -
We increase our price target to $31 from $29 as we increase our 2026 and 2027 EPS estimates to reflect ARLP's recently announced purchase of additional royalties. On June 8 ARLP disclosed a significant purchase of additional oil and natural gas royalties, increasing estimated royalty revenue by 40%. We view the additional royalties as accretive to earnings beginning with the closing of the transaction in 3Q:26.
Margins on royalty revenue are much higher than margins on coal revenue. Using the company's figures for segment-level revenue and expense, we estimate that full year 2025 operating margin on coal was 30%, while operating margin on oil and gas royalties was 85%. With royalty revenue increasing by 40%, we estimate operating income derived from royalties will increase by 34%.
The purchase expands ARLP's royalty interests in the Permian Basin, while providing an entry to the Haynesville Basin. 52% of the royalties being purchased are in the Permian Basin, where ARLP already has a significant presence. The remaining royalty rights are in the Delaware, Anadarko, Bakken and Haynesville Basins. Haynesville, where ARLP did not previously own any royalty rights, is a major source of natural gas for U.S. exports of LNG.
The purchase price for the additional royalties is $206.2 million, which will largely be financed by additional debt; we estimate this will increase ARLP's debt to capital ratio to 28% from 22% currently, and that interest coverage will decline to 4.2x from 4.7x. We forecast that increased free cash flow will be used to repay the increased debt within a few quarters.
We raise our price target to $31 from $29, and maintain our Moderate risk rating. We derive our price target by applying an unchanged 11x multiple to our increased estimate for 2026 earnings per unit (EPU) of $2.62 (from $2.47), plus $2.40 in expected cash distributions per year. Our Moderate risk rating is supported by our forecast for ARLP's 3Q:26 debt to capital ratio of 28%, and our forecasted interest coverage ratio of 4.2x.
The $206.2 million purchase price for the additional royalties will largely be financed by increased debt, which will increase the company's debt to total capital ratio and decrease interest coverage. The purchase of additional royalties will largely be financed by variable-rate bank debt. If the purchase price is entirely funded by debt, we estimate ARLP's debt to capital ratio will increase to 28% from 22% as of the end of 1Q:26, and interest coverage will decline to 4.2x from 4.7x. Going forward, we forecast that increased royalty revenue will meaningfully increase free cash flow, allowing the additional debt to be repaid within a few quarters.
Margins on royalty revenues are very attractive. Based on segment-level data supplied by the company, we estimate the operating margin on royalty revenue at 85%, compared to 30% on coal revenue.
Higher prices for oil produced in the U.S. are likely to increase the revenue received from royalties. Oil prices are highly volatile, but the Iran conflict has significantly increased the price of oil produced in the U.S. From the start of the conflict on February 28, 2026 to June 9, 2026, WTI prices are up approximately 30%, and have ranged as much as 50% higher.
We view the purchase of additional royalties as immediately accretive to earnings. We estimate that increased debt will increase interest costs by approximately $4 million per quarter, until debt paydowns begin. At the same time, we forecast increased royalty revenue of $17 million per quarter, offset by $3 million in increased cost of sales. We forecast that pre-tax income will increase by $10 million per quarter in 3Q:26, prior to the beginning of debt paydowns. As free cash flow increases and is deployed for debt paydowns, we forecast that lower interest expense will increase pre-tax income further. As a partnership, taxes on ARLP's income tend to be low; we model them at 6.5%.