Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) reports earnings April 27. Due to increasing power demand and higher oil prices, we increase our 1Q:26 estimate of earnings per unit (EPU) to $0.56 from $0.54, and increase our full-year 2026 estimate to $2.47 from $2.37. We maintain our $29 price target and Moderate risk rating.
With this report, we have changed the basis of our reporting to adjusted earnings, which exclude non-recurring, unusual, extraordinary, and unrelated non-operating items. FactSet's consensus estimate for 1Q:26 is $0.34, $0.22 less than our estimate. We suspect the difference is driven by different treatment of some expenses and gains.
In February, ARLP's 2025 10-K announced that 1Q:26 results will include a $43 million impairment charge due to the closure of the Mettiki coal mine, that we regard as non-recurring. In addition, we project an $8.1 mark-to-market loss on the company's bitcoin holding, that we treat as an unrelated non-operating item.
ARLP's largest source of revenue is coal sales to power producers in the Eastern U.S. We forecast that growth in power demand will sustain coal volumes and benefit coal pricing. ARLP's second largest source of revenue is royalties on oil and gas production. We forecast higher oil prices for the next several years due to the time required to rebuild energy infrastructure damaged by the Mideast conflict.
We maintain our $29 price target and Moderate risk rating. We derive our price target by applying an unchanged 11x multiple to our $2.47 estimate for 2026 EPU, plus $2.40 in expected cash distributions per year. Our Moderate risk rating is supported by ARLP's current debt to capital level of 20% and high interest coverage ratio of 8x.
28 Apr 2026
Raise 2026 And 2027 Estimates On Increasing Power Demand And Higher Energy Prices; Maintain $29 Price Target and Moderate Risk Rating
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Raise 2026 And 2027 Estimates On Increasing Power Demand And Higher Energy Prices; Maintain $29 Price Target and Moderate Risk Rating
Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
28 Apr 2026 -
Author:
Michael Mathison -
Pages:
11 -
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) reports earnings April 27. Due to increasing power demand and higher oil prices, we increase our 1Q:26 estimate of earnings per unit (EPU) to $0.56 from $0.54, and increase our full-year 2026 estimate to $2.47 from $2.37. We maintain our $29 price target and Moderate risk rating.
With this report, we have changed the basis of our reporting to adjusted earnings, which exclude non-recurring, unusual, extraordinary, and unrelated non-operating items. FactSet's consensus estimate for 1Q:26 is $0.34, $0.22 less than our estimate. We suspect the difference is driven by different treatment of some expenses and gains.
In February, ARLP's 2025 10-K announced that 1Q:26 results will include a $43 million impairment charge due to the closure of the Mettiki coal mine, that we regard as non-recurring. In addition, we project an $8.1 mark-to-market loss on the company's bitcoin holding, that we treat as an unrelated non-operating item.
ARLP's largest source of revenue is coal sales to power producers in the Eastern U.S. We forecast that growth in power demand will sustain coal volumes and benefit coal pricing. ARLP's second largest source of revenue is royalties on oil and gas production. We forecast higher oil prices for the next several years due to the time required to rebuild energy infrastructure damaged by the Mideast conflict.
We maintain our $29 price target and Moderate risk rating. We derive our price target by applying an unchanged 11x multiple to our $2.47 estimate for 2026 EPU, plus $2.40 in expected cash distributions per year. Our Moderate risk rating is supported by ARLP's current debt to capital level of 20% and high interest coverage ratio of 8x.