Post reopening, manufacturing orders in China in Q1 and into Q2 have provided a negative surprise to consensus. Construction numbers will likely take until H2 to stabilise. The July Politburo meeting could provide a forum for stimulus measures. We will host a field trip in China in mid-June. Manufacturing activity the weak link, construction a drag as expected PMIs for May were another consensus miss, continuing the trend of uneven economic recovery since ''Reopening'', while services have fared better, amid an overall weak job market. Economic momentum has been particularly poor after some one-off pent-up demand in Q1. This echoed the findings from our Dec 22-Jan 23 field trip, which painted a picture of lack of confidence across the private sector on both domestic and export markets. The FY23 GDP growth target is not at risk, but further weak prints are on the cards The 5% GDP growth target on an easy, disrupted FY22 base (3%) looks cautious enough. Q2 22 GDP growth was a mere 0.4% y/y but consensus expectation of 7.6% for Q2 23 looks optimistic compared to April-May trends. Q3 22 was up 3.9% y/y and Q4 c9% greater q/q in absolute: we estimate 5.8% GDP growth in Q2, implying a minimum 4.8% y/y growth in H2 to meet the annual 5% target. Q2-Q3 looks set to come below current consensus. A muted policy response so far: July for a pivot in policy? The poor job market and youth unemployment have caught policymakers'' attention. The July Politburo meeting could be an opportunity to unveil stimulus measures in the form of a cut in the 5-year MLF, a RRR cut by the PBoC, a reset in loan terms for heavily indebted local governments, an extension in the special bonds programme, and/or initiatives to boost manufacturing. A risk averse environment weighs on Mining equities Pair trades favour Newmont (+) over Barrick (=), Freeport (+) over FQM (=). Glencore (+) is still in a standoff with Teck Resources (NR). South32 (+) offers value.