The US regional banks wobble has had limited direct contagion in commodities so far but has raises macro risk on slower credit growth, while a pause in Fed''s rate hikes is supportive for Metals and Gold. China reopening momentum has been soft on the industrial side, in line with findings from our early year trip there. April manufacturing PMIs dropped into contraction territory again, with the Steel PMI down to 45. 1Q industrial profits were down 21.4% y/y in China. Housing sales (-3.5%) and starts (-19.2%) decline in 1Q, whereas one of the few bright spots -Housing completions- was up +14.7% y/y. Youth unemployment which was up to 19.6% showed that the private sector has not rebuilt confidence yet. Policies will remain accommodative, but the use of public money remains targeted, while local government debt has to remain under control. With property passed its peak, infrastructure spending constrained by local government debt and exports at risk of fading on slowing Western growth, authorities look to bet on a modernisation campaign of China manufacturing. Iron Ore looks set to correct further down on CISA pushing for steel production cuts. Base Metals are not immune to global macro but should continue to benefit from green shoots in the form of some manufacturing restart, higher intensity of usage through energy transition applications, low inventories, a high level of supply disruption in Copper ytd (Latam, Indonesia), capacity remaining idled in Aluminium (EU, China), Russian supply vulnerable to spare parts shortage, resource nationalism through higher taxes and share of future projects that weigh on supply response. This context favours MandA, as shown in the Glencore (+)-Teck Resources situation likely to move to next steps, with major value unlock potential if the deal goes through. Other diversified miners are likely to consider acquisitions too as...