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  • 31 Jul 2021

You know less than you did yesterday


Commerzbank AG (CBK:ETR), 0 | Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft (DBK:ETR), 0 | Societe Generale S.A. Class A (GLE:PAR), 0 | KBC Group N.V. (KBC:BRU), 0 | Banco Santander, S.A. (SAN:MCE), 0 | NatWest Group Plc (NWG:LON), 523 | Standard Chartered PLC (STAN:LON), 1,421 | ING Groep N.V. (INGA:AMS), 0 | Banco Comercial Portugues S.A. (BCP:LIS), 0 | Barclays PLC (BARC:LON), 376 | Lloyds Banking Group plc (LLOY:LON), 81.5 | HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA:LON), 991 | Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (BBVA:MCE), 0 | UniCredit S.p.A. (UCG:MIL), 0 | Bankinter SA (BKT:MCE), 0 | Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB Class A (SEB.A:OME), 0 | Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. (ISP:MIL), 0 | AIB Group plc (A5G:DUB), 0 | Swedbank AB Class A (SWED.A:OME), 0 | Svenska Handelsbanken AB Class A (SHB.A:OME), 0 | Danske Bank A/S (DANSKE:CSE), 0 | Erste Group Bank AG (EBS:WBO), 0 | BPER Banca S.p.A. (BPE:MIL), 0 | Credito Emiliano S.p.A. (CE:MIL), 0 | Morgan Stanley (MS:NYS), 0 | Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. (BMPS:MIL), 0 | Banco debadell (SAB:BME), 0 | Banco de Sabadell SA (SAB:MCE), 0 | Credit Agricole SA (ACA:PAR), 0 | Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS:NYS), 0 | Bank of Ireland Group Plc (BIRG:LON), 1,352 | Raiffeisen Bank International AG (RBI:WBO), 0 | CaixaBank SA (CABK:MCE), 0 | Julius Baer Gruppe AG (BAER:SWX), 0 | FinecoBank SpA (FBK:MIL), 0 | UBS Group AG (UBSG:SWX), 0 | ABN AMRO Bank N.V. Depositary receipts (ABN:AMS), 0 | Metro Bank Holdings Plc (MTRO:LON), 127 | Banco BPM SpA (BAMI:MIL), 0 | Unicaja Banco S.A. (UNI:MCE), 0 | DNB Bank ASA (DNB:OSL), 0 | Banco Comercial Portugues S.A. (0RJN:LON), 0 | Bankinter SA (0H7O:LON), 0 | Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. (0RK6:LON), 0 | BPER Banca S.p.A. (0MU6:LON), 0 | CaixaBank SA (0ILK:LON), 0 | Credit Agricole SA (0HAI:LON), 0 | Credito Emiliano S.p.A. (0K93:LON), 0 | Danske Bank A/S (0NVC:LON), 0 | DNB Bank ASA (0O84:LON), 0 | Erste Group Bank AG (0MJK:LON), 0 | FinecoBank SpA (0QVF:LON), 0 | Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (0R3G:LON), 60,100 | Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. (0HBC:LON), 0 | KBC Group N.V. (0EYG:LON), 0 | MFE-MediaForEurope NV Class B (0NE1:LON), 0 | Aurubis AG (0K7F:LON), 0 | Raiffeisen Bank International AG (0NXR:LON), 0 | Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB Class C (0GUX:LON), 0 | Societe Generale S.A. Class A (0J6Y:LON), 0 | Svenska Handelsbanken AB Class A (0R7R:LON), 0 | Swedbank AB Class A (0H6T:LON), 0 | UniCredit S.p.A. (0RLS:LON), 0

  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Davey Nick DN | Lacour Maxime ML | Tiberghien Guillaume GT

    • 15 pages


 

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You know less than you did yesterday


Commerzbank AG (CBK:ETR), 0 | Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft (DBK:ETR), 0 | Societe Generale S.A. Class A (GLE:PAR), 0 | KBC Group N.V. (KBC:BRU), 0 | Banco Santander, S.A. (SAN:MCE), 0 | NatWest Group Plc (NWG:LON), 523 | Standard Chartered PLC (STAN:LON), 1,421 | ING Groep N.V. (INGA:AMS), 0 | Banco Comercial Portugues S.A. (BCP:LIS), 0 | Barclays PLC (BARC:LON), 376 | Lloyds Banking Group plc (LLOY:LON), 81.5 | HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA:LON), 991 | Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (BBVA:MCE), 0 | UniCredit S.p.A. (UCG:MIL), 0 | Bankinter SA (BKT:MCE), 0 | Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB Class A (SEB.A:OME), 0 | Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. (ISP:MIL), 0 | AIB Group plc (A5G:DUB), 0 | Swedbank AB Class A (SWED.A:OME), 0 | Svenska Handelsbanken AB Class A (SHB.A:OME), 0 | Danske Bank A/S (DANSKE:CSE), 0 | Erste Group Bank AG (EBS:WBO), 0 | BPER Banca S.p.A. (BPE:MIL), 0 | Credito Emiliano S.p.A. (CE:MIL), 0 | Morgan Stanley (MS:NYS), 0 | Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. (BMPS:MIL), 0 | Banco debadell (SAB:BME), 0 | Banco de Sabadell SA (SAB:MCE), 0 | Credit Agricole SA (ACA:PAR), 0 | Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS:NYS), 0 | Bank of Ireland Group Plc (BIRG:LON), 1,352 | Raiffeisen Bank International AG (RBI:WBO), 0 | CaixaBank SA (CABK:MCE), 0 | Julius Baer Gruppe AG (BAER:SWX), 0 | FinecoBank SpA (FBK:MIL), 0 | UBS Group AG (UBSG:SWX), 0 | ABN AMRO Bank N.V. Depositary receipts (ABN:AMS), 0 | Metro Bank Holdings Plc (MTRO:LON), 127 | Banco BPM SpA (BAMI:MIL), 0 | Unicaja Banco S.A. (UNI:MCE), 0 | DNB Bank ASA (DNB:OSL), 0 | Banco Comercial Portugues S.A. (0RJN:LON), 0 | Bankinter SA (0H7O:LON), 0 | Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. (0RK6:LON), 0 | BPER Banca S.p.A. (0MU6:LON), 0 | CaixaBank SA (0ILK:LON), 0 | Credit Agricole SA (0HAI:LON), 0 | Credito Emiliano S.p.A. (0K93:LON), 0 | Danske Bank A/S (0NVC:LON), 0 | DNB Bank ASA (0O84:LON), 0 | Erste Group Bank AG (0MJK:LON), 0 | FinecoBank SpA (0QVF:LON), 0 | Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (0R3G:LON), 60,100 | Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. (0HBC:LON), 0 | KBC Group N.V. (0EYG:LON), 0 | MFE-MediaForEurope NV Class B (0NE1:LON), 0 | Aurubis AG (0K7F:LON), 0 | Raiffeisen Bank International AG (0NXR:LON), 0 | Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB Class C (0GUX:LON), 0 | Societe Generale S.A. Class A (0J6Y:LON), 0 | Svenska Handelsbanken AB Class A (0R7R:LON), 0 | Swedbank AB Class A (0H6T:LON), 0 | UniCredit S.p.A. (0RLS:LON), 0

  • Published: 31 Jul 2021
  • Author: Davey Nick DN | Lacour Maxime ML | Tiberghien Guillaume GT
  • Pages: 15
  • BNP Paribas Exane


Investors now need better visibility We were fully expecting to write that Friday''s stress-tests taught us little we didn''t know already. But in the end, one bit of disclosure from the ECB genuinely did surprise us, leaving behind some important, longer-lasting questions relating to banks'' CET1 needs. Investors should assume that the dispersion of capital needs between the high/low risk banks in the Eurozone will now widen. This report unpicks what we learned, why it matters and who may be impacted. Our key messages: (1) as investors, you need more capital disclosure than you are currently getting. (2) Quality wins. To P2G or not to P2G? Until now, a bank''s Pillar 2G need has been (rather bizarrely) a closely-held secret. Disclosure, where it has existed, has implied a very narrow range of P2G demands around 1%. New ECB disclosure implies a future range (on paper) of 0-4.25%. Even two banks in the same ''risk quartile'' could have a 275bp different CET1 need, one from the other. Frankly, following this disclosure, we don''t see how investors are expected to remain in the dark on single-stock P2G needs from here. Banks which fared poorly in the stress-test are most at risk. Also... Each member of the EBNPP Banks team looks at what they learned in the stress test for their stocks. The results are pretty close to those we anticipated in ''A Stress Test Tool-Kit''. Bankinter impressed, Danske, SocGen, AIB, Sabadell and Deutsche Bank may face more investor scrutiny. Investment implications We like the sector for its positive earnings revisions and undemanding valuation. But the regulatory agenda in Europe remains disappointingly unpredictable, and opaque enough to be an impediment for most Portfolio Managers. This news is a step in the wrong direction, a hint at something troubling which only increased transparency can appease. At a stock level, our Top Picks - Credit Agricole, Intesa, BBVA, Erste and Barclays should not be directly impacted,...

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