Inventory short, maintenance approaching - it''s time to introduce a product ban! The intent may be admirable. But as diesel prices surge, will Europe''s initiatives to reduce Russian oil income effectively set the continent up for another, post-gas, own goal but this time via a material elevation in the price of diesel? Accounting for c.45% of European oil product demand - twice that of other OECD regions - the timing of the EU''s decision to ban the import of Russian-crude derived diesel appears likely to augment short-term demand for a product that for a host of reasons is already in short supply. Of course, many of the factors creating today''s tightness are transient. But with EU distillate inventory low and recent refinery closures only likely to aggravate Europe''s 1.2mb/d short, plans to ban the import of Russian-derived products from early 2026, in our view, risk extending the tightness. Good news for EU names with a diesel bias not least Repsol and to a lesser extent TTE. Let''s hope the US doesn''t follow suit. Even at the best of times restricting product sources and re-wiring supply logistics invariably lends support to pricing. So, for the EU to do so at a time when the market for diesel is already tight and a maintenance season approaching can only introduce uncertainty. Add to this the rumblings of an unpredictable US administration that is threatening its own actions as it seeks to end Russia''s war in the Ukraine, and the potential for tightness in diesel supplies is only likely to be extended. Of course, there tempering factors. But if tightness is sustained who, Repsol aside, wins? Of course, from the increased supply of OPEC heavy oil to the reaction of a refining industry that invariably tilts product supply to maximise price capture, there are tempering factors. Much of the recent elevation in diesel margins also looks to us to be seasonal. But running through the opposing supply/demand positives and negatives it''s hard not to come...