Today we hosted Aldo Spanjer (BNP Paribas Head of Energy Strategy) to discuss the outlook for gas prices in 2026. Below we highlight the key takeaways from the discussion. With EU gas storage ~50% full - where will it be at the end of the draw season? After a cold December, European gas storage is ~50% full, significantly lower than the five-year seasonal average of 68%. Spanjer expects storage to be 26% full at the end of the draw season due to cold weather driving strong demand. Additionally, the slippage of Golden Pass LNG into 1Q26 has weighed on pre-winter exit rate forecasts. Despite forecasting the lowest exit rate since 2022, with ~50bcm of additional LNG supply in 2026 (US Gulf Coast, LNG Canada 2 and Qatar) Spanjer believes gas prices will fall into the summer months and notes that the currently inverted summer-winter spread will need to correct to incentivise gas being placed into storage. With ample supply, will gas markets be oversupplied in 2026? More likely 2027+ Spanjer expects Asian markets will absorb the yoy supply growth. He forecasts baseline demand growth of ~35bcm, therefore only 15bcm of above baseline demand is required to balance the market. Price sensitive Asian buyers across multiple countries (notably China''s history of increasing tenders at $9 /MMBtu), improved industrial demand from lower energy costs and a low-European storage exit level should take up the balance. Beyond 2026, LNG supply growth will outpace demand and gas prices are expected to fall further with Spanjer assuming a floor price will be set by a tightening US gas market plus the opex costs of transporting gas to Europe (~$2.5mmbtu). Who''s exposed? Equinor is the most obvious European gas play. Equinor has the highest exposure to movements in gas prices, with OMV, ENI and TotalEnergies also more exposed than peers to European gas pricing. Repsol''s CFFO has the highest sensitivity to Henry Hub vs peers given its production weighting to US natural gas....