Geopolitical volatility continues to dominate the oil market narrative. Yesterday we held our Oil Industry Insights call, bringing BNPP''s oil market experts together to discuss the outlook for 2026. The recent Venezuelan intervention makes it clear that the US Administration is unabashed in employing hard power to meet its political goals, underscoring that geopolitical risk will dominate the 2026 oil market debate - a key topic discussed during the call. Venezuela: Our view a few days in. Our assessment is that any US-driven surge in Venezuelan output will be modest at best. With most major international oil companies having exited a decade ago, a swift return is unlikely unless legal, fiscal and institutional hurdles are removed. Production may well ramp by c.100-200 kb/d but this is fairly small relative to the 700 kb/d the country already produces. Sanctions relief, while probable, will serve more as a bargaining chip for Washington when dealing with Caracas; it will mainly free up Venezuela''s existing storage (about 35mb). The resulting shift in trade flows - more Venezuelan heavy to US Gulf refiners and less Canadian heavy - will likely be largely absorbed elsewhere, such as in China. Importantly, the re-entry of Venezuelan crude onto the market may prompt tighter US enforcement of sanctions elsewhere, namely Iran and Russia, especially if WTI nears USD55/bbl. SHE (+) and XOM (=) trading statements this week set the tone ahead of 4Q25 results. Both Shell (+) and Exxon (=) released their 4Q25 trading statements this week. Exxon''s trading update pointed to a very strong quarter for its refining business given very elevated margins, not least diesel through October and November. While Shell also benefited from the healthy refining environment, these were insufficient to offset the typically weaker quarter for trading and write-offs in the downstream business. Overall, the trading statements out this week set the tone for the impending...