The key theme of the IEA''s monthly oil market report published this morning is the disconnect between the commodity price on the screen and the large well-known oversupply in the global oil market. The IEA attributes this to the high share of sanctioned oil exports which lengthens crude supply routes as well as the tightness in refining markets. Outside of China, much of the build in oil volumes have not yet hit on-land inventory levels: Oil on water has surged by 213mb since the end of August as 1) sanctioned barrels have not been able to find a home - Iran, Russia, and Venezuela represent over a third of the increase in all crude oil on water since August - 2) increased long haul shipments from the Americas to Asia 3) higher OPEC+ exports as members'' domestic demand was seasonally weaker at a time of higher production quotas. However, as those barrels start to reach land and inventories build, we suspect price will feel the pain - as outlined in our recent 2026 outlook report: BIG OIL: Re-rated?. Demand upgrades: . The IEA now forecasts 2025 global oil demand growth of 830 kb/d (vs. 790kb/d last month) and 860 kb/d in 2026 (vs. 770 kb/d in last month''s report) . These demand upgrades are driven by higher gasoil and jet fuel demand in 2025 and higher petrochemical demand in 2026. . Tailwinds to oil demand next year include falling oil prices and the lower US dollar, both near 4-year lows. Supply downgrades: . Global oil supply growth was cut by ~100kb/d to 3mb/d in 2025 and cut marginally to 2.4mb/d in 2026. . OPEC+ adds 1.3mb/d in both 2026 and 2026 based on the current quotas . Non-OPEC+ adds 1.7mb/d in 2025 and 1.2mb/d in 2026 - led by the US, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana . This trim to supply growth in 2025 had been led by . Further sanctions on Russia and Venezuela - November saw Russian oil exports decline by 420kb/d due to sanctions. . Unplanned outages in Kuwait and maintenance work in Brazil Refining: . Full-year global refinery...