The IEA published its monthly Oil Market Report this morning, maintaining its relatively weak global oil demand growth estimate for 2025 at 1mb/d, while downgrading 4Q24 and 1Q25 to 1.2mb/d. This comes after recent demand was below expectations, particularly in emerging markets. The report re-iterates that Asia is the driver behind demand in 2025, accounting for 60% of year-on-year growth, with LPG and Ethane being the most sought-after product, as demand for refined fuels in China stagnates. With the oil price now down to c. $70/bbl, the IEA does see declining oil prices supporting demand to some extent, and notes that this helped to tighten refining margins last month. February saw world oil supply increase by 240kb/d, led by the Tengiz ramp-up in Kazakhstan as well as Iran and Venezuela boosting output ahead of sanctions. More broadly, global oil supply is expected to outweigh demand by 600kb/d in 2025, led by 1.5mb/d non-OPEC supply growth mostly from US, Canada, Brazil and Guyana. Following OPEC''s recent announcement that it will unwind voluntary cuts from April, the IEA comments that the impact on supply might be relatively muted (50kb/d back rather than the nominal 138kb/d) as only Saudi Arabia really has room to raise production, given the non-compliance of the other members. While the IEA states it''s too early to assess the impact of tariffs on the market outlook, the message is clear that the increased volatility does shift the macro risks to the downside. Demand: . Global oil demand forecast is largely unchanged at 1mb/d growth in 2025, up from an annual average increase of 830kb/d in 2024. . Asia Pacific region will account for 60% of 2025 demand growth, 20% of this from China. Demand growth in China alone is expected to be 228kb/d in 2025, up slightly from last month, due to lower oil prices incentivising demand. . Growth in China driven by annual increase in LPG and ethane demand, with petchem capacity builds anticipated to draw in...