We just hosted an Oil and Gas Industry Insight Call with Aldo Spanjer (BNPP Head of Energy Strategy) to discuss the latest on the Middle East conflict in the context of oil and gas markets. We summarise the key commentary below. The latest on the Middle East conflict: Still in no man''s land . Nothing appears to have significantly changed since the ceasefire; we note that a number of vessels in the Strait of Hormuz were attacked by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend. . Additionally, Iran attacked the Fujairah oil terminal though the extent of damage is unknown. . The Iranian foreign minister is reportedly going to China later this week, hence we await developments, if any. UAE leaves OPEC: Limited impact in the short term . The UAE announced its departure from OPEC+ last week. As long as Hormuz remains closed, Spanjer''s view is that it will make little difference to realized flows, but it is fair to assume the UAE will ramp up production now that it is not restricted by OPEC quotas. . The UAE plans to increase production capacity to about 5mbd in 2027 which would imply up to 1.2mbd extra supply to market. Inventories: Declining supplies from the Middle East to result in a c. 6mb/d draw on onshore crude storage . Global onshore crude stocks are at c. 3.5bn bbls with approximately 1.3bn bbls in China and c. 800mn in the US. . Last week, DOE statistics showed a 16.8mn bbl aggregate draw on commercial stockpiles in the US and US exports hit record highs - we expect this trend in the Atlantic Basin to continue as the conflict rolls on. . With c. 10mb/d of supply lost since the conflict, Spanjer expects this to be balanced by a c. 6mb/d draw on storage, and the remaining 4mb/d to consist of a draw on strategic reserves and some demand destruction (likely 2-3mb/d). Price expectations: All depends on the opening of the Strait of Hormuz . If the SoH remains shut by June, Spanjer expects the Brent oil price to climb significantly higher (up to...