Yesterday, we held an Industry Insights Call discussing the implications of the announced ceasefire in the Middle East. The speakers were Aldo Spanjer (Senior Commodities Desk Strategist) and Chris Jost (Natural Resources Specialist Sales). Key takeaways from the call are outlined below. The de-escalation narrative is now in play and the Middle East risk premium is minimized. . Following ceasefire announcements from Trump and initial agreements from both Iran and Israel, near-term the de-escalation narrative is in now in play. . It was implied that there are ''two ceasefires'': . The ceasefire between US and Iran which we assume is now in place. This has hugely lowered the risk of the closure of the Hormuz Strait. . The ceasefire between Israel and Iran based on destroyed nuclear facilities. . However, if Netanyahu pushes for a regime change in Iran there is a risk the ceasefire fails. However, the risk of attacks impacting oil, gas and product flows is believed to be less likely outside of domestic energy supply. A closure of the Straits of Hormuz has been materially de-risked. . Longer-term re-escalation is possible as the latest strikes may have only delayed rather than destroyed Iran''s nuclear ambitions. . Part of the Integrated Oil''s outperformance over the past 10 days has been driven by the market using the names as ''insurance'' for the volatility in the Middle East. . However, the fact that that airstrikes on Iran did not trigger a Hormuz Strait closure means that the risk premium associated with the Middle East tensions is now materially lower (if not close to zero). As such, aside from the summer demand boost, the outlook for oil price and equities is bearish. Oversupply continues to hang over the oil market in the near-term while the long-term outlook is more positive. . OPEC supply additions through the summer combined with non-OPEC supply growth and Trump''sreported support of China continuing to import Iranian crude results in a...