What happened? OPEC plus accelerates the pace of barrel return by above consensus expectations OPEC+ has confirmed that it will increase its production target for August by a further 548kb/d, ahead of market expectations for another c411kb/ rise, as it looks to the accelerated unwind of voluntary production cuts. Quoting a steady global economic outlook (here) upon doing so the organisation will have effectively announced the unwind of c1.9mb/d of quota reductions since the start of April 2025, with several members privately commenting that the organisation will seek a further 548kb/d unwind when it meets next month to decide on September production levels. Were OPEC+ to do so it would see the full removal of the 2.2mb/d of voluntary cuts implemented in November ''23. The increase comes as a number of non-OPEC mega-projects have been coming onstream, our estimates suggesting that, as illustrated overleaf, towards 1.5mb/d of projects have now commenced start-up since late 2024 - with several earlier than had been anticipated. We note that OPEC+ has not talked to the unwind of the initial 1.6mb/d of voluntary reductions introduced in April 2023 and which remain in place. BNPP Exane View: Do we need to start to worry about the other 1.7mb/d of ''voluntary'' cuts? With the oil price remaining relatively robust despite evidence of strongly building inventories, the expectation had been that OPEC+ would again look to the unwind of c411kb/d. As such, that the increase at 548kb/d is higher is likely to weigh on the front end of the oil curve, especially given comments from several delegates that the intent remains to achieve the full unwind at next month''s meeting. Admittedly, as with the earlier unwinds, that most OPEC members are already producing above quota levels implies that the ''add-back'' will be nowhere near that which the headline release implies. As written last month, look to the implied production quotas for August and compare them with IEA...