What happened? OPEC completes the unwind of its third voluntary cut Largely as anticipated, OPEC+ on Sunday confirmed that it intends to fully unwind the 2.2mb/d of voluntary cuts introduced in November 2023, announcing the return of a further 548kb/d of nominal capacity in September. In aggregate we expect the unwind will likely see the addition of just over 1.2mb/d of supply in September relative to where production stood before the start of the unwind in April of this year (as illustrated in the charts overleaf), and essentially representing an incremental 1mb/d of Saudi supply. To the best of our knowledge no mention was made as to OPEC+''s intent to seek the unwind of the earlier 1.66mb/d of voluntary it introduced in April 2023, and which again fell largely upon Saudi (0.5mb/d) and Russia. Rather the organisation has confirmed that it will continue to review developments and may pause or adjust depending upon market conditions. BNPP Exane View: With action threatened on Russia too many moving parts for comfort We have consistently expressed our view that, when combined with the strong build in ex-US onshore non -OPEC supply, OPEC''s additions would place considerable pressure on the oil price. Simply considering the increment that we expect Saudi to have added by September we estimate that OPEC will be delivering towards 0.5mb/d more than it was in July let alone March. Coming at a time of the year when demand tends to fall seasonally by a sequential 0.75m/d the increases should, on the face of it, mean that the market is well supplied. Good news on non-OPEC starts: Moreover, we note that Exxon, ENI and Beacon have in recent days also confirmed the start-up of a further 0.5mb/d of non-OPEC supply over the past week, much of which is expected to ramp to capacity over the next three months. As such, quite aside from the OPEC+ increments, non-OPEC has now brought onstream nameplate capacity of over 1.5mb/d since the start of the year (see...