What happened? OPEC+ has confirmed that, as had been expected, it will increase its production target by a further accelerated c410kb/d in July relative to its directed production for June, effectively the third month in which for which it has indicated the accelerated unwind of voluntary cuts. Upon doing so the organisation will have effectively announced the unwind of c1.4mb/d of quota reductions since the start of April 2025, or over half of the 2.2mb/d that it had previously indicated it planned to unwind by September 2026. No comments were made on its further intentions for August and whether the pace of reintroduction may be expected to slow, with only the Russians appearing reluctant to support the full 410kb/d increase planned for July. The increase comes at the same time that a number of non-OPEC mega-projects have been coming onstream, our estimates suggesting that, as illustrated overleaf, towards 1.1mb/d of projects have moved to ramp since December 2024 several of which are earlier than anticipated. BNPP Exane View: Its really only Saudi that is set to add new barrels That OPEC+ has again announced the accelerated release of barrels was largely as expected, although indications that this came despite the resistance of the Russians to a continuance of the recent pace of increases, suggests to us a Saudi approach that is more determined than not to see its volumes restored. And whilst the now planned unwind of some 1.4mb/d by July 2025 sounds substantial, look to the implied production quotas for July and compare them with IEA estimates for the actual production by country in April, and immediately apparent is that it is only really Saudi Arabia that is actually expected to see a material c575kb/d increase in agreed production, an observation which emphasises the extent to which others have been overproducing relative to their previously agreed ''voluntary'' reductions. As such, and given that the increases are taking place into the...