Q1''26 results: It''s more about tomorrow than yesterday. The oil and gas majors'' 1Q26 reporting season commences with ENI on Friday 24th April. After a quarter in which Brent oil prices averaged c. USD81/bbl in Q1''26 - up sharply from USD63/bbl in Q4''25 driven by the Middle East conflict - a key question will be whether the businesses have captured the expected price upside. bp''s upstream realizations, for example, are expected to contribute USD0.1-0.2bn - short of expectations due to price lags. The focus will likely extend beyond quarterly results, with investors seeking insight into the companies'' perspectives on the commodity going forward. While capex plans may be under scrutiny, no changes are expected at this stage. Expect strong trading results countered by very material increases in working capital. Q1 saw strong trading results in light of the elevated pricing environment, but some of this is countered by the material impact on working capital due to building inventories. bp is anticipated to benefit from a gas trading result of c. USD0.4-0.5bn and an exceptional oil products trading result of c. USD0.75-1bn, despite a large build in working capital. TotalEnergies is expected to see a working capital outflow of around USD5bn, although its integrated LNG results are likely to be significantly higher than in Q4, supported by better-than-peer trading. Shell''s trading statement also pointed to good trading results (more so in Oil Products than Gas) but highlighted a significant working capital outflow of USD10-15bn, driven by higher inventory and funding costs. Similarly, Exxon saw a USD4.2bn negative impact from timing differences related to inventory, and has indicated USD0.4-0.8bn of direct net income impact from the loss of volume from its operations in the Middle East. Positioning in 2026 and where to go in a fundamentally changed oil market. As seen in our recent note, BIG OIL: Fundamentally Changed, on our revised priced deck we see...