Q4''25 results will be helped by strong refining but are unlikely to make for inspiring reading The oil and gas majors'' 4Q25 reporting season kicks off this week with XOM and CVX on Friday 30th January. XOM''s trading statement at the start of January broadly set the tone, highlighting a very strong quarter for refining margins but a more challenged upstream as crude prices were down $5/bbl, averaging $63/bbl in Q4''25. Add to this the fact that Q4 is usually a softer period for trading and a quarter of elevated capex, and we expect results are unlikely to make for inspiring reading. Strong refining with weaker upstream meant pre-results trading statements were a mixed bag European refining margins reached record levels ($21/bbl) in Q4''25 on the back of Russian export disruption and heavy maintenance, resulting in margins $2.5/bbl higher QoQ. Despite this, Repsol''s trading statement was a miss vs consensus, with the refining margin benefit offset by a material negative impact from weaker oil and changes to exchange rates. TTE on the other hand saw a very strong final quarter, benefitting from the refining boost as well as robust trading, better-than-expected upstream volumes and higher LNG production as the turnaround at Icthys wrapped up. The US also saw refining margin strength, and this was reflected in a very strong quarter for Exxon''s Energy Products business. The UK names, however, both recorded sizeable write offs at year end - bp in its transition portfolio and Shell in the downstream businesses - with trading results indicating typical seasonal softness. Positioning in 2026 and where to go this quarter Given considerable uncertainty around buyback commitments at bp, Shell and Equinor amongst others, we see elevated upside and downside risk for these names into the quarter, making positioning harder than usual to call. Fundamentally, we prefer bp (+) for the alpha story, Shell (+) for its defensiveness, and GALP (+) following its...