Qatar LNG down. European gas price up +70%. China loses out on critical volumes. As the Middle East conflict continues to escalate, in this note we look in more detail at the implications of the shut-down of Qatar''s Ras Laffan LNG complex. The world''s largest LNG export facility, which produces c. 20% of global supply, has halted production for the foreseeable future - likely to only return when the ongoing attacks subside. Europe only imported c.14% of Qatari LNG exports in 2024 (and likely less in 2025), hence the reason for the TTF price surge is less to do with European dependence on the fuel but rather the wider gas market implications: China and India consume at least 40% Qatari LNG exports, so the disruption raises the price which incentivises Asian demand. Exxon is the largest IOC partner for Qatar LNG. Shell and TTE are also exposed. Looking at the stocks in our coverage, Exxon accounts for 16% (13mtpa) of Qatar''s 80mtpa of LNG, the material cash flow from which is set to be disrupted. Shell is the next most exposed, albeit largely through its gas-to-liquids plant, Pearl GTL. TTE''s exposure arises via its upstream gas positions and interest in the Al Shaheen oil field. Looking to cash flows, operations in Qatar (LNG and other) account for a not insignificant c. 5% of Exxon, Shell and TTE''s cash flow from operations. Qatar disruption widens the transatlantic LNG spread. TTE and Shell stand to gain. With European gas prices rising, and as LNG cargoes from the US become more attractive on the back of the Qatari disruption, the spread between the European gas price and the landed cost of US LNG into Europe has widened. As large buyers of US gas into Europe, we would expect Shell, bp and in particular TTE to benefit from a wider US-into-Europe LNG arbitrage. In this note, we also show regasification capacity of the companies to indicate who can actually receive and reroute these cargoes, hence capturing the price spreads and monetizing the...