Ukraine theoretically could halt c.1.9mb/d of Russian crude exports. The latest wave of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure has expanded to include major export facilities, most notably the Primorsk port on the Baltic Sea. With Ukrainian drones in reach of all major ports in Western Russia, the 2.3mb/d of crude that is shipped from these ports is exposed to attack. Factoring in the fact that only limited crude could be realistically diverted eastward, our analysis suggests that c. 1.9mb/d of Russian crude exports could theoretically be at risk of disruption. While it is in no way our expectation that such an extreme will come to pass, oil prices are reflecting increased anxiety even in today''s over-supplied oil markets. Russian refineries have taken the real hit, with c. 800kb/d of diesel exports at risk. The impact has been much more acute on the product side, as Ukraine has been targeting refineries in Western Russia throughout the course of the war. In total, Ukrainian drones have attacked over 15 refineries, with towards 1.5mb/d of product capacity more recently suggested to have been at least temporarily affected. Whilst Russian product exports have to date been sustained, most importantly diesel, shortages in the domestic market suggest that Ukraine''s attacks on refining infrastructure are now taking their toll. Looking to the equities, Repsol and other Euro-majors appear the most exposed. Given expectations for a material 2mb/d+ oil supply surplus across the coming quarters, our view is that, absent an extreme event, oil markets should be able to more than manage. However, in refining and products, not least those for European diesel, there is a growing risk of genuine market pain. Looking to the equities, which Euro name could stand to benefit from elevated diesel margins? Everyone seems to know (and has consequently priced) that it''s Repsol (U/P EUR11). Of more interest to us, therefore, are the recent laggards,...