This content is only available within our institutional offering.

06 Nov 2024
US election: What might Trump mean for the Oils?
Saipem (SPM:BIT), 0 | Saipem S.p.A. (SPM:MIL), 0 | BP PLC (BP:LON), 361 | Vallourec (VK:EPA), 0 | Vallourec SA (VK:PAR), 0 | TotalEnergies SE (TTE:PAR), 0 | OMV (OMV:VIE), 0 | OMV AG (OMV:WBO), 0 | Viridien (VIRI:PAR), 0 | Repsol (REP:BME), 0 | Repsol SA (REP:MCE), 0 | Eni (ENI:BIT), 0 | Eni S.p.A. (ENI:MIL), 0 | SBM Offshore NV (SBMO:AMS), 0 | Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM:NYSE), 0 | Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM:NYS), 0 | Chevron Corporation (CVX:NYSE), 0 | Chevron Corporation (CVX:NYS), 0 | Equinor ASA (EQNR:STO), 0 | Equinor ASA (EQNR:OSL), 0 | TechnipFMC PLC (FTI:NYSE), 0 | TechnipFMC plc (FTI:NYS), 0 | Neste Corporation (NESTE:HEL), 0 | Shell Plc (SHEL:LON), 2,504 | SUBSEA 7 (SUBC:STO), 0 | Subsea 7 S.A. (SUBC:OSL), 0 | Galp Energia SGPS (GALP:ELI), 0 | Galp Energia, SGPS S.A. Class B (GALP:LIS), 0 | Gaztransport & Technigaz (GTT:EPA), 0 | Gaztransport & Technigaz SA (GTT:PAR), 0 | AKER SOLUTIONS (AKSO:STO), 0 | Aker Solutions ASA (AKSO:OSL), 0 | Saudi Arabian Oil Co. (2222:SAU), 0 | Technip Energies NV (TE:PAR), 0 | Adnoc Gas Plc (ADNOCGAS:ADS), 0

Sign in
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
US election: What might Trump mean for the Oils?
Saipem (SPM:BIT), 0 | Saipem S.p.A. (SPM:MIL), 0 | BP PLC (BP:LON), 361 | Vallourec (VK:EPA), 0 | Vallourec SA (VK:PAR), 0 | TotalEnergies SE (TTE:PAR), 0 | OMV (OMV:VIE), 0 | OMV AG (OMV:WBO), 0 | Viridien (VIRI:PAR), 0 | Repsol (REP:BME), 0 | Repsol SA (REP:MCE), 0 | Eni (ENI:BIT), 0 | Eni S.p.A. (ENI:MIL), 0 | SBM Offshore NV (SBMO:AMS), 0 | Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM:NYSE), 0 | Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM:NYS), 0 | Chevron Corporation (CVX:NYSE), 0 | Chevron Corporation (CVX:NYS), 0 | Equinor ASA (EQNR:STO), 0 | Equinor ASA (EQNR:OSL), 0 | TechnipFMC PLC (FTI:NYSE), 0 | TechnipFMC plc (FTI:NYS), 0 | Neste Corporation (NESTE:HEL), 0 | Shell Plc (SHEL:LON), 2,504 | SUBSEA 7 (SUBC:STO), 0 | Subsea 7 S.A. (SUBC:OSL), 0 | Galp Energia SGPS (GALP:ELI), 0 | Galp Energia, SGPS S.A. Class B (GALP:LIS), 0 | Gaztransport & Technigaz (GTT:EPA), 0 | Gaztransport & Technigaz SA (GTT:PAR), 0 | AKER SOLUTIONS (AKSO:STO), 0 | Aker Solutions ASA (AKSO:OSL), 0 | Saudi Arabian Oil Co. (2222:SAU), 0 | Technip Energies NV (TE:PAR), 0 | Adnoc Gas Plc (ADNOCGAS:ADS), 0
- Published:
06 Nov 2024 -
Author:
Herrmann Lucas LH -
Pages:
8 -
What happened?
With Trump appearing the likely victor in the US presidential elections what initial approach would we expect the market to take towards the oil and gas names. Several observations in our view are of relevance namely those for oil, gas, currency, taxation, and tariff. Here we briefly lay down our main observations across the different areas and the different names.
BNPP Exane View:
Oil - both domestic and international: Tump is generally perceived as ''drill baby drill'' and repeal green legislation, with a Republican victory likely to drive a stronger dollar. Whilst we may believe that a Trump presidency will do little if anything to alter the allocation policies of the US onshore industry - which remain firmly fixed on disciplined investment and allocation of capital to shareholder rather than to the drill bit - the simple observation is that Trump is perceived as supportive supply, and therefore NEGATIVE oil pricing. With the USD also seen as strengthening this in our view will very much be the first take on oil and the oil sector outlook. Currency aside, the above observations, however, very much apply to domestic policy. Yet, we believe that it will be the Republican''s approach to foreign policy that proves more important. We would expect Trump to be tougher with Iran, threatening even further its current 1.7mb/d of exports. For Russia we see Trump as perceived to be more likely to encourage an END to hostilities which by contrast would be negative oil, albeit that sanctions will not readily unwind in our view limiting a change in flows, and more importantly perhaps, negative gas which to date has not been sanctioned. It is gas as such that is probably the more affected commodity from a Russia perspective with investors more likely to sensibly worry for elevated flows. That''s not great EU gas sellers (TTE and EQNR). Better for Asian gas exposure with a Brent bias (Shell and to a much lesser extent, bp).
On gas and LNG:, after...